Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1c112b2cd375dee11564a40835528d37484d402355b644c98117bdc7cb8fbea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3e4…013dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,952$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 34c | 499.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.86 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 488.36$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.51 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 359.17$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.17 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 345.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 290.29$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.51 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 62c | 242$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.66 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 221.73$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.98 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 8c | 217.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 74c | 216.13$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 75c | 210.89$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 14c | 208$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 22c | 203.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 71c | 200.05$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.91 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e1…3fc9backed Yes | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 69c | 181.49$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.62 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 176.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 66c | 172.17$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.03 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 66c | 170.46$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 31c | 152.31$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 20c | 147.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd62a…de09backed Yes | 27c | 145.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 71c | 144.56$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…f8efbacked Yes | 25c | 132.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 130$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 121.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 15c | 114.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked Yes | 26c | 109.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 36c | 106.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 47c | 105.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…9558backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d2…05ccbacked Yes | 35c | 99.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 13c | 89.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 71c | 88.8$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 86.28$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 70c | 85.7$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 66c | 82.43$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 66c | 82.43$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 68c | 82.18$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 63c | 77.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 41c | 72.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked No | 79c | 71.58$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 27c | 69.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 31c | 67.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 36c | 65.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 31c | 63.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 40c | 61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 44c | 60.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe53…99a6backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2b…659bbacked Yes | 33c | 59.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 53.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 53.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 21c | 51.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 21c | 50.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 67c | 50.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 27c | 50.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb7…2ebbbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 71c | 49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 30c | 47.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 45c | 42.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 30c | 41.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 47c | 40.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…576dbacked Yes | 33c | 39.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6283…3e7abacked Yes | 30c | 37.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 57c | 37.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 64c | 31.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes | 35c | 30.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 38c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x018e…c536backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 24.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 22.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 74c | 21.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 78c | 20.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x902f…574abacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9896…e187backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…8a8bbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 70c | 17.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 70c | 16.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 16.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x61d9…ab59backed No | 70c | 15.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf7…ebeabacked No | 75c | 14.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.