Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6496e5eb7d6b375f0be382ebee1cd779113afd442e95547d50d024a8a840fee3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 20c | 1,036$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 981.91$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.52 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 2c | 845.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…914fbacked Yes | 29c | 445.68$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.17 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 74c | 397.29$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.34 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 76c | 366.29$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.91 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 25c | 343.64$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 253.38$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.9 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 27c | 223.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 75c | 193.94$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.75 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 77c | 177.86$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.02 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a23…932abacked Yes | 15c | 154.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf325…f8e0backed Yes | 26c | 154.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 152.21$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…6ed2backed Yes | 8c | 129.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 73c | 120$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 105$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 79c | 102.5$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 24c | 101$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x450f…c578backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 78c | 95$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 26c | 87.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 21c | 86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 27c | 74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 28c | 69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 20c | 68.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 23c | 65.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 63.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4c…2918backed Yes | 28c | 60.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…4eedbacked Yes | 21c | 49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 75c | 47.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 77c | 45.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 42.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked No | 71c | 35.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…5cb0backed No | 76c | 30.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 29.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 77c | 26.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x937e…953bbacked No | 73c | 25.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1655…08e1backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 77c | 21.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…88a2backed No | 79c | 18.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 58 | 84.5%49 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 75c | 15.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 36°C on August 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 37°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 38°C on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.