Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a298015f671565acccf30b0e8d0c31d6716b3687286c54ac5ec5945bd6efcab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 52c | 659.2$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.91 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 3c | 470.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 44c | 366.45$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 62c | 336.35$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.53 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d98…261ebacked No | 74c | 308.19$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.52 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked Yes | 43c | 232.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 65c | 230.78$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 62c | 225.37$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.42 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 34c | 187.16$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.66 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 178.1$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.39 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 55c | 161.13$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 31c | 145.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 137.61$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed No | 78c | 127.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 56c | 116.02$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 33c | 96.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…f8efbacked Yes | 49c | 90$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a23…932abacked Yes | 38c | 89.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 30c | 84.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 69c | 82.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 50c | 81.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 57c | 77.38$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 44c | 77.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 67c | 74.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…b6ddbacked No | 69c | 72.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 23c | 70.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 68.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 43c | 65.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 21c | 61.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 57c | 58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 57.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 52.27$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…6fd1backed Yes | 45c | 50.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3f…fde2backed No | 59c | 50.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 42c | 50.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 30c | 50.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes | 24c | 47.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes | 34c | 42.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd491…d031backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 42c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 39c | 38.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d08…9232backed Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 47c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371b…8786backed Yes | 44c | 31.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 29.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8dd…5c14backed Yes | 43c | 29.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 28.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 56c | 28.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba9…cad3backed Yes | 38c | 27.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 69c | 25.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1655…08e1backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 24.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…680abacked Yes | 46c | 23.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed No | 73c | 23.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x885a…4e58backed No | 79c | 22.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +46%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 22.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed No | 68c | 21.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ae…697fbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9358…1e76backed No | 53c | 19.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51f…24e8backed No | 70c | 18.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 63c | 18.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 36°C on August 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 37°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 38°C on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.