Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 36°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedd40ba9b357f231cf7c3154c754fd1a3aa16f1a8ef2f76b2d74421972df90a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x79ad…4eedbacked No | 78c | 2,069$1,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,623.17 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 22c | 889.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.28 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 12c | 862.46$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.74 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 749.91$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 3c | 638.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 14c | 634.45$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.13 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 417.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.51 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 18c | 399.95$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.43 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3f…fde2backed No | 74c | 376.37$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.35 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 24c | 367.49$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.59 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 19c | 366.74$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.32 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 47c | 365.68$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.68 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 11c | 312.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 263.09$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 12c | 260.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 7c | 244.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed Yes | 20c | 232.72$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.29 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 19c | 210$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 13c | 201.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 14c | 193.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 188.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 16c | 185$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 16c | 182.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.44 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3e…cfaebacked No | 6c | 176.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 175.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.91 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 15c | 158.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 152.14$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.81 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 38c | 130.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.43 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 17c | 115.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.66 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 23c | 107.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 106.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.37 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 17c | 105.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.82 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 20c | 105.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.29 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 63c | 99.53$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.35 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 13c | 99.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 25c | 98.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.08 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 22c | 94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 47c | 90.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 28c | 89.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.09 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 89$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.91 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 22c | 88.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.1 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 16c | 83.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 20c | 82.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.42 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 17c | 80.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 56c | 74.1$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 20c | 74.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 24c | 70.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 39c | 68.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 17c | 63.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 26c | 62.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 20c | 51.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 26c | 50.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 31c | 44.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…680abacked Yes | 48c | 39.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 34.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 57c | 31.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xd491…d031backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d08…9232backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 29.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…266abacked Yes | 46c | 27.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 40c | 27.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed Yes | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1655…08e1backed No | 78c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 50c | 23.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9159…f1a8backed Yes | 74c | 21.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9358…1e76backed No | 67c | 19.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa1…2f62backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 68 | 70.6%48 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef1…8b77backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 36°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 37°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 38°C on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.