Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64c2d16b12b39617ee7a834b1655c34cfaf5c74b4748b9704197f1d61f198a63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 31c | 965.88$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 25c | 428$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed Yes | 31c | 380.87$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.07 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 27c | 309.1$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.65 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 26c | 258.22$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.13 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 214.71$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 196$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 72c | 107.38$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 89.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e88…697dbacked Yes | 30c | 87.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ccefbacked Yes | 36c | 82.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 78$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 74.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 70c | 73.63$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 72.46$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 67c | 71.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 70c | 71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 67.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 75c | 65.3$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b2…a684backed No | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 40c | 56.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 34c | 53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 74c | 51.12$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 40c | 47.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 39c | 46.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 40c | 46.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 75c | 42.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 59c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 26c | 39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 72c | 38.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 71c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…d09cbacked No | 71c | 35.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ad…d17abacked Yes | 33c | 34.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 33.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed No | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…f311backed No | 64c | 30.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 29.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 62c | 20.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…7fd5backed No | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on August 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.