Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64dcca53ba306ffed71e6eec7c5515d2e41b245612d709d3dd698493f9255c16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,075 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 0c | 3,388$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 6c | 2,851$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.99 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…d7aebacked No | 2c | 846.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 6c | 806.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 7c | 715.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 695.13$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.64 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 444.78$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 76c | 373.55$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.31 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed No | 7c | 364.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 13c | 363.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 20c | 259.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.69 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 249.4$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.11 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 199.96$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.59 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 31c | 166.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.37 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 165$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.39 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaeb…8032backed No | 7c | 147.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357f…b6c5backed Yes | 75c | 146.19$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 27c | 139.61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.33 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 123.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 116.21$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 114.89$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.34 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…946cbacked Yes | 44c | 109.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.88 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +40%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked No | 9c | 108.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.95 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098a…8fc5backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 97.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.47 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 26c | 95.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.78 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdc…a0babacked No | 72c | 91.16$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.39 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7a…957ebacked Yes | 22c | 89.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.39 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…d64bbacked Yes | 29c | 74.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 29c | 72.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf2…559cbacked Yes | 36c | 70.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 69c | 66.73$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 71c | 63.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc769…0925backed Yes | 24c | 61.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e6…c602backed Yes | 22c | 60.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 23c | 51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 26c | 50.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293a…24f9backed Yes | 31c | 48.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 67c | 47.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 23c | 47.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 66c | 45.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 25c | 44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 80c | 41.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 64c | 40.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 34c | 40.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 29c | 38.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 31c | 36.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f59…9e40backed Yes | 27c | 36.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 76c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 75c | 33.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5220…901dbacked No | 79c | 31.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 46cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2e…593fbacked No | 75c | 31.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 74c | 25.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 73c | 20.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 80c | 19.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…8032backed No | 67c | 17.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C or higher on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on March 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.