Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f50d22cc337eb933a07f0301ba8a4ccb26c1ae65e785cf75d9382147497ffc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,199 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c51…d7aebacked Yes | 0c | 19,869$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…e400backed Yes | 1c | 4,684$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.48 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…df5ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,064$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…0c8abacked Yes | 1c | 2,015$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2e…593fbacked Yes | 64c | 1,076$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3be5…ae59backed Yes | 2c | 1,030$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5b…e747backed Yes | 52c | 755.41$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.24 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 696.14$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.89 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 52c | 554.22$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.31 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…9d98backed Yes | 43c | 440$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.96 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 49c | 409.91$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.84 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 64c | 378.81$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.56 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 49c | 345.51$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.04 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 37c | 332.84$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.16 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1418…6fefbacked Yes | 57c | 321.58$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.81 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 271.68$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…5554backed Yes | 57c | 239.62$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.72 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked No | 65c | 230$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 75c | 191.71$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.8 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 73c | 180$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.24 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed No | 25c | 179.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.34 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 39c | 169.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.12 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 164.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.6 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 18c | 163.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.63 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 46c | 163.19$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 51c | 155.05$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.75 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 70c | 148.76$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.13 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 30c | 146.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.2 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed Yes | 34c | 139.68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x357f…b6c5backed Yes | 71c | 119.43$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15c8…0eb5backed No | 34c | 118$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 30c | 103.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.69 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 52c | 99.89$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc7…3bbabacked Yes | 12c | 98.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098a…8fc5backed Yes | 49c | 94.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 69c | 91.75$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.54 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 40c | 90.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 45c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 59c | 88$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35a…e615backed Yes | 77c | 83$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.14 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4a…1de1backed Yes | 32c | 78.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 76.69$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 34c | 72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…d343backed No | 36c | 69.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 36c | 68.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 35c | 66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 30c | 63.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.47 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf2…559cbacked Yes | 43c | 57.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48ff…74c0backed Yes | 66c | 54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4c…dd88backed Yes | 33c | 53.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 25cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 66c | 52.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 31c | 52.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…d64bbacked Yes | 56c | 52.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 48c | 51.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 42c | 51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 59c | 50.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c2…d167backed Yes | 39c | 50.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 63c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…938bbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb46…af70backed Yes | 66c | 45.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba5…dc25backed Yes | 64c | 44.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 43c | 44.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 49c | 43.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…2ae1backed Yes | 77c | 43.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 62c | 40.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 44c | 39.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…507abacked Yes | 77c | 39.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 36c | 37.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 79c | 37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8095…d7abbacked Yes | 75c | 36.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0043…dadebacked No | 39c | 35.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 35c | 34.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaeb…8032backed No | 60c | 33.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb93…8fe7backed Yes | 66c | 33.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 58c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…0c4ebacked No | 41c | 31.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 58c | 31.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d3…d1fabacked Yes | 47c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 41c | 30.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd89f…4864backed Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 70c | 29.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…8ddabacked Yes | 66c | 27.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d11…71a2backed No | 41c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0675…1ec0backed Yes | 46c | 26.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…9c46backed Yes | 46c | 26.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 66c | 25.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 57c | 24.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C or higher on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on March 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.