Tennis · resolved market
ITF Ollersbach: Andrej Martin vs Mathys Erhard
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6517ea4c2d9da3cb0038ea70c8adddffd3dba896a16cebb0e4f88546c543711c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mathys Erhardof Andrej Martin, Mathys Erhard
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,748
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,748 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8dae…125cbacked Andrej Martin | 27c | 4,021$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.59 | 223 | 46.6%104 W · 119 L | +15.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b6…5858backed Andrej Martin | 20c | 2,617$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 230 | 30.4%70 W · 160 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Mathys Erhard | 74c | 1,957$1,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.09 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…57adbacked Andrej Martin | 23c | 900$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Mathys Erhard | 73c | 750.55$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.85 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Mathys Erhard | 58c | 719.9$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.36 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91b6…4b40backed Andrej Martin | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 306 | 25.8%79 W · 227 L | -28.6wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Mathys Erhard | 60c | 566.65$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.07 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e2…4ffcbacked Andrej Martin | 20c | 505$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Andrej Martin | 40c | 495.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,841 | 48.5%892 W · 949 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…2e6bbacked Andrej Martin | 47c | 427.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Andrej Martin | 39c | 424$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.03 | 323 | 29.7%96 W · 227 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Mathys Erhard | 79c | 386.48$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.98 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba86…9ab0backed Andrej Martin | 44c | 350.92$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.31 | 672 | 39.1%263 W · 409 L | -29.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…ed02backed Andrej Martin | 5c | 349.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25f7…b16dbacked Mathys Erhard | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 281 | 54.8%154 W · 127 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Mathys Erhard | 66c | 315$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.21 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c9…8803backed Andrej Martin | 25c | 285.16$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.19 | 137 | 43.1%59 W · 78 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc37…bac6backed Mathys Erhard | 58c | 277.97$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.75 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a1…1227backed Andrej Martin | 39c | 256.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Mathys Erhard | 72c | 208$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Mathys Erhard | 67c | 207.74$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…47a4backed Mathys Erhard | 55c | 185.84$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.97 | 1,023 | 41.3%422 W · 601 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f1…e83ebacked Mathys Erhard | 73c | 178.08$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf12f…b30fbacked Andrej Martin | 25c | 147.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 700 | 41.1%288 W · 412 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc951…e212backed Andrej Martin | 8c | 146.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2f…65ecbacked Mathys Erhard | 71c | 125.14$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Andrej Martin | 40c | 102.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde8c…9433backed Andrej Martin | 22c | 85.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Mathys Erhard | 70c | 84.55$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6b…ec86backed Andrej Martin | 35c | 83.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 1,062 | 31.8%338 W · 724 L | -27.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Mathys Erhard | 62c | 82.21$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Andrej Martin | 32c | 75.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf433…efd3backed Andrej Martin | 17c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x583c…86c0backed Andrej Martin | 29c | 69.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf9…8292backed Andrej Martin | 39c | 65.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 588 | 57.7%339 W · 249 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a62…4ab9backed Mathys Erhard | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 145 | 36.6%53 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Mathys Erhard | 69c | 56.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa182…3106backed Mathys Erhard | 57c | 54.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 609 | 62.7%382 W · 227 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Mathys Erhard | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 440 | 51.6%227 W · 213 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc6…9c5cbacked Mathys Erhard | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Andrej Martin | 42c | 48.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Mathys Erhard | 52c | 44.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Andrej Martin | 38c | 39.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 171 | 40.9%70 W · 101 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x023d…23acbacked Andrej Martin | 38c | 39.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 617 | 55.9%345 W · 272 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x361a…ea72backed Andrej Martin | 39c | 37.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Andrej Martin | 38c | 32.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Mathys Erhard | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 603 | 41.1%248 W · 355 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfb…7665backed Mathys Erhard | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Mathys Erhard | 58c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Mathys Erhard | 67c | 30.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked Mathys Erhard | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 721 | 47.3%341 W · 380 L | -18.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Mathys Erhard | 79c | 28.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 1,708 | 44.8%766 W · 942 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d34…d7b5backed Mathys Erhard | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 525 | 52.4%275 W · 250 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Mathys Erhard | 57c | 21.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 455 | 66.4%302 W · 153 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Mathys Erhard | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff6…0918backed Mathys Erhard | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 498 | 57%284 W · 214 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x083d…10a1backed Mathys Erhard | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…b7d4backed Mathys Erhard | 76c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.