TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
RED Canidsof RED Canids, Fluxo W7M
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,582
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,388

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,582 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xec54…e8c1backed RED Canids45c8,362$3,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,624.651,32038.6%510 W · 810 L-66.0wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd58…18f9backed Fluxo W7M55c6,000$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,299.9921144.5%94 W · 117 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed Fluxo W7M55c3,221$1,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,782.1164943.1%280 W · 369 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed RED Canids45c3,060$1,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,696.942,24037.3%836 W · 1,404 L-31.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked Fluxo W7M54c3,020$1,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,631.0396948.6%471 W · 498 L+12.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f4a…df23backed Fluxo W7M53c2,129$1,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,128.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed Fluxo W7M56c1,800$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0081,49248.4%722 W · 770 L+47.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d85…f4e0backed Fluxo W7M56c1,378$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.6765047.4%308 W · 342 L+24.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed RED Canids47c1,036$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.561,52550.6%771 W · 754 L+3.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88ba…b99abacked RED Canids45c1,023$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.483438.2%13 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6a1…802ebacked RED Canids46c1,000$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.8580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+37%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked RED Canids47c900$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47764849.8%323 W · 325 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb6c…d38ebacked RED Canids46c895$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.3512850%64 W · 64 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed RED Canids46c850$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.0582953.4%443 W · 386 L-3.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked Fluxo W7M51c545$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.144743.6%195 W · 252 L+1.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4377…74c2backed Fluxo W7M56c517.21$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.526752.2%35 W · 32 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+30.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed RED Canids49c500$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2551,26542.8%541 W · 724 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27f5…c45dbacked Fluxo W7M53c499.99$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.9917438.5%67 W · 107 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea9b…2be5backed RED Canids47c494.99$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.343237.5%12 W · 20 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-24.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked RED Canids46c270$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.136446.4%169 W · 195 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbbb…3df5backed RED Canids46c250$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13530251.3%155 W · 147 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc754…4b1dbacked RED Canids45c242$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.124836.7%91 W · 157 L-0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92a9…0e78backed Fluxo W7M57c239.67$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.6139342.2%166 W · 227 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a5e…8fd0backed RED Canids45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.2253753.6%288 W · 249 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6376…0d2abacked Fluxo W7M55c222.22$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.2228341%116 W · 167 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed RED Canids44c221.53$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.061060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+13.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x04a7…164bbacked Fluxo W7M56c219.99$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.194047.5%19 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Fluxo W7M55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11079745.8%365 W · 432 L-0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Fluxo W7M55c153.98$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.691,60817.5%282 W · 1,326 L-245.3wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-63.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x5423…8b45backed RED Canids46c108.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.5911352.2%59 W · 54 L+7.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeef9…8731backed RED Canids45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5534756.5%196 W · 151 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked RED Canids45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.52839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-31.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7d2…5bc1backed RED Canids45c66.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.672254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed Fluxo W7M56c54.02$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.251,57748.4%764 W · 813 L+17.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62d6…54e8backed RED Canids52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-23.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeff4…2aa4backed RED Canids46c43.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4833563.3%212 W · 123 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Fluxo W7M55c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2237650%188 W · 188 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3335…f6debacked RED Canids45c30.71$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8911559.1%68 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Fluxo W7M55c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.575150.7%381 W · 370 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed RED Canids78c28.09$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.161,18166%780 W · 401 L+70.1wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5407…5bbdbacked RED Canids45c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.751450%7 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+23.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.