TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
RED Canidsof RED Canids, Fluxo W7M
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$75,129
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$88,092

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,129 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcf60…a6f5backed RED Canids70c7,870$5,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,360.8791854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33d3…bf38backed Fluxo W7M29c4,700$1,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,369.997758.4%45 W · 32 L+8.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+10%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Fluxo W7M27c4,034$1,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.381,52150.6%769 W · 752 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed Fluxo W7M1c4,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405920%0 W · 592 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe881…19abbacked Fluxo W7M1c3,500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354314.9%21 W · 410 L-1.8wins0.00per pick5cpaid-86.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ca0…38babacked Fluxo W7M14c3,193$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.381,44343.4%626 W · 817 L+105.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d21…92e5backed Fluxo W7M14c3,143$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.1669841.8%292 W · 406 L+46.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed Fluxo W7M5c2,360$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.021,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d85…f4e0backed Fluxo W7M10c2,217$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.964247.4%304 W · 338 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked Fluxo W7M32c1,915$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.7196048.8%468 W · 492 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed RED Canids68c1,765$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.711,30838.6%505 W · 803 L-64.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked Fluxo W7M29c1,700$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.2567250.9%342 W · 330 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aa0…e20fbacked RED Canids76c1,672$1,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.41250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0960…5adcbacked Fluxo W7M30c1,667$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50012642.1%53 W · 73 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked RED Canids72c1,661$1,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.6830357.1%173 W · 130 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Fluxo W7M24c1,450$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.0887844.2%388 W · 490 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed RED Canids75c1,364$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.8286943.2%375 W · 494 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Fluxo W7M33c1,181$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.9819731%61 W · 136 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0273…f081backed RED Canids69c1,140$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.1533332.7%109 W · 224 L-15.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee9c…c449backed Fluxo W7M16c977.3$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.5152743.5%229 W · 298 L+32.8wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked Fluxo W7M11c903$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.711,01955.8%569 W · 450 L+22.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked RED Canids68c813$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.1666843%287 W · 381 L-29.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x27f5…c45dbacked Fluxo W7M30c800$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23617438.5%67 W · 107 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked RED Canids67c795.98$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.022,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9b2…2745backed Fluxo W7M15c766.67$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.2312030.8%37 W · 83 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed RED Canids71c749.98$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.52740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked RED Canids71c687.64$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.421,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Fluxo W7M22c655.49$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.841,05746.1%487 W · 570 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe625…94c0backed Fluxo W7M14c600$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.8874344%327 W · 416 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed RED Canids68c588$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.1696250.1%482 W · 480 L+1.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x337f…3506backed Fluxo W7M14c569.34$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.651241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed Fluxo W7M9c555.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5048353.4%258 W · 225 L-19.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbdcb…36c9backed Fluxo W7M30c540.53$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.162236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+119.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb57d…07bfbacked Fluxo W7M24c528.07$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12527244.1%120 W · 152 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6376…0d2abacked Fluxo W7M31c521.08$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.5328341%116 W · 167 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b04…f792backed RED Canids72c483.33$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.3339266.6%261 W · 131 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78e8…3c36backed Fluxo W7M30c480.87$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14518036.1%65 W · 115 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked RED Canids71c466.97$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.2235341.9%148 W · 205 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x589a…8dc5backed Fluxo W7M21c461.08$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.4316737.7%63 W · 104 L-9.5wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ac…c9f4backed RED Canids69c460.7$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.8241469.3%287 W · 127 L+33.5wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+9.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x65c4…3c1abacked Fluxo W7M31c440$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.46241.9%26 W · 36 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeecd…4fefbacked RED Canids69c438.35$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.8936460.2%219 W · 145 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed RED Canids69c437.32$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.3557349.4%283 W · 290 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff4…d731backed RED Canids80c402.39$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.215133.3%17 W · 34 L-6.2wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-35.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Fluxo W7M29c398.45$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.141,92242.2%811 W · 1,111 L-45.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Fluxo W7M28c396.96$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.152,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x969f…cbdcbacked Fluxo W7M32c380.75$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.618046.1%83 W · 97 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbafa…02e0backed Fluxo W7M11c368.3$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4180150.7%406 W · 395 L+48.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed RED Canids72c333$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.2420557.1%117 W · 88 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fd1…17ccbacked Fluxo W7M6c303$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2760124.1%145 W · 456 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e8e…f9b2backed Fluxo W7M30c292.57$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.7740446%186 W · 218 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked RED Canids71c288.17$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.5782161%501 W · 320 L+1.1wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0867…3023backed RED Canids69c283.29$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.822454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Fluxo W7M32c260$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.22744.4%12 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41e2…3ad5backed RED Canids68c249.99$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804114.6%6 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ed5…8165backed Fluxo W7M29c241.38$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7034844.8%156 W · 192 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed RED Canids69c233.3$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.9848747%229 W · 258 L-1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b8b…2ce5backed Fluxo W7M16c233.02$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.32770.4%19 W · 8 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Fluxo W7M23c225$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.381,63846.7%765 W · 873 L-26.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7329…bebdbacked Fluxo W7M23c217.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5043453.5%232 W · 202 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee7e…f7d7backed Fluxo W7M20c207.84$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.576011.7%7 W · 53 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed RED Canids76c200$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4894134.5%325 W · 616 L+33.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa485…a7d5backed Fluxo W7M5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1025345.8%116 W · 137 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked RED Canids72c193$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.041,35651.1%693 W · 663 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Fluxo W7M30c179.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.242,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked RED Canids73c163.89$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.8923880.3%191 W · 47 L+16.2wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x34f9…12ebbacked Fluxo W7M32c155.47$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7530632%98 W · 208 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd23f…0b63backed Fluxo W7M29c150.86$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.753351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb909…d559backed Fluxo W7M25c150$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.529643.6%129 W · 167 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2eda…4498backed RED Canids68c148.6$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.5512059.2%71 W · 49 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6f8…7fa1backed Fluxo W7M32c147.09$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0777746.2%359 W · 418 L+18.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd257…c66cbacked RED Canids71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.85825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-64.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb8b6…9588backed RED Canids78c123.35$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7331155.9%174 W · 137 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Fluxo W7M33c117.4$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.341,44713.3%192 W · 1,255 L-109.5wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Fluxo W7M29c113.88$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.851,89937.1%705 W · 1,194 L-113.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-32.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Fluxo W7M31c109.84$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.111,20743.5%525 W · 682 L-14.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1933…82c5backed Fluxo W7M28c108.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011155.9%62 W · 49 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked RED Canids68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-31.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d19…296ebacked Fluxo W7M29c93.1$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2735146.2%162 W · 189 L+11.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc413…166ebacked Fluxo W7M18c84.76$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Fluxo W7M23c81.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.581,97130.5%601 W · 1,370 L-170.0wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-43.4%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x5423…8b45backed RED Canids67c74.6$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6211352.2%59 W · 54 L+7.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6cda…81d4backed RED Canids74c74.5$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.56573.8%48 W · 17 L+5.4wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeef4…477bbacked RED Canids77c71.34$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce38…2513backed RED Canids71c70.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.422100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8165…ba12backed Fluxo W7M33c63.64$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2118248.4%88 W · 94 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f6…1eacbacked Fluxo W7M32c62.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Fluxo W7M32c61.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,54354.8%845 W · 698 L+75.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3561…1bfebacked Fluxo W7M20c59.39$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1225165.7%165 W · 86 L+14.7wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+6.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6aa7…1323backed RED Canids72c59.22$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.586360.3%38 W · 25 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa306…a39dbacked Fluxo W7M32c59$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8823559.6%140 W · 95 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ed…1ea1backed RED Canids68c55.83$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.875639.3%22 W · 34 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc690…ec5bbacked Fluxo W7M25c53.91$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3841453.4%221 W · 193 L+1.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf725…fc53backed Fluxo W7M29c51.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153729.7%11 W · 26 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-34%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x398d…b8d6backed RED Canids75c49.63$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6364451.2%330 W · 314 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc353…f2e1backed RED Canids79c49.53$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.232100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+75.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed RED Canids71c42.23$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.251,47748.3%713 W · 764 L+45.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc161…bd88backed Fluxo W7M29c41.38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1273851.5%380 W · 358 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69b7…ae1dbacked RED Canids73c40.79$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0125764.2%165 W · 92 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Fluxo W7M27c40.79$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.011,53943.7%673 W · 866 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.