South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Independiente win on 2025-11-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65808db629ba1f9217c3b78579bc1b85a78b6777d5704733fe8d0c5baae49fbb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,738
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,738 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 69c | 1,878$1,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,304.48 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 31c | 1,187$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.62 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 31c | 1,092$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.76 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 70c | 846.53$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 68c | 737.75$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.48 | 160 | 55.6%89 W · 71 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3520…f128backed Yes | 9c | 499.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.99 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1520…378fbacked Yes | 31c | 499.99$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bb…aad7backed Yes | 26c | 399.33$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd390…dc62backed Yes | 27c | 369.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 32c | 356.01$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.15 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 73c | 337.36$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.15 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 20c | 295.74$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.74 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9357…042ebacked Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…1eedbacked Yes | 31c | 262.96$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c68…f2a8backed Yes | 31c | 220.29$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +219.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4944…e4c7backed No | 69c | 217.39$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…d923backed Yes | 30c | 205$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +64%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8911…d388backed Yes | 32c | 187.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed Yes | 28c | 171.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.15 | 144 | 22.9%33 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 43c | 140.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.98 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…1b07backed Yes | 37c | 136.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x844b…2580backed No | 66c | 121.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd461…1d6cbacked Yes | 34c | 118.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.47 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…eea2backed Yes | 32c | 109.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.79 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52ce…1178backed Yes | 35c | 88.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +186.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Yes | 33c | 76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -14.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 67c | 71.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0100…3cf3backed Yes | 34c | 59.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Yes | 30c | 54.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 100 | 54%54 W · 46 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0613…5204backed Yes | 33c | 54.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f31…83cfbacked Yes | 36c | 54.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 26c | 51.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…1f6bbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…4ec4backed Yes | 33c | 44.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…c7b4backed Yes | 34c | 43.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1e…6b94backed Yes | 37c | 40.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dae…f2f4backed No | 77c | 37.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa844…4a7fbacked Yes | 31c | 32.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…a488backed No | 69c | 31.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…cfadbacked No | 77c | 26.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 68c | 17.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 119 | 59.7%71 W · 48 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Independiente win on 2025-11-10?this page
- Will CD Riestra vs. CA Independiente end in a draw?No won
- Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.