MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65982c0d08ff469b572bc121a6d2a9f6b76923f0f8636dc81a43bd5935e6062f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 70c | 3,950$2,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,749.86 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 31c | 3,079$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,120.66 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 35c | 2,951$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,918.15 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 65c | 2,787$1,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,807.23 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 73c | 2,392$1,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.25 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Under | 3c | 2,165$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.94 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 34c | 1,485$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.95 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 44c | 399$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.56 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…81eabacked Over | 56c | 399$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.56 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 32c | 323.78$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.9 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 275.59$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.75 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Under | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 5.6%6 W · 102 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 2cpaid | +339.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Over | 58c | 173.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.79 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 45c | 165.33$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.93 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 23c | 131.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 40c | 101$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Under | 18c | 92.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd344…e41bbacked Over | 31c | 91.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 41c | 82.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 45c | 57.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 39c | 53.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Over | 55c | 45.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Under | 34c | 44.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 41c | 42.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 37c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Over | 35c | 36.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Over | 55c | 35.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 42c | 32.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 65c | 24.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Under | 70c | 16.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red SoxMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.