MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ef3d74976c0edc2fe6faecd0f9bb241eb002d7dcda2532f0c084a89e26c5393
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 7,661$4,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,060.15 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Over | 47c | 7,200$3,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,816 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 47c | 1,010$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.3 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 53c | 976.9$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.6 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 53c | 888.6$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.5 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Over | 44c | 861.59$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.49 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 733.74$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.88 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 57c | 192.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 42c | 185$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.3 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 58c | 175$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 27c | 127$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Over | 54c | 92.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.01 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 73c | 90.81$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Over | 64c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 45c | 89.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 43c | 86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Over | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 77c | 67.61$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…2c05backed Under | 52c | 65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 48c | 62.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07c0…5dd2backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 184 | 58.2%107 W · 77 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Under | 24c | 44.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 55c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 36c | 44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 28c | 43.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 61c | 27.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…5c31backed Over | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 51c | 20.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red SoxMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.