MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc6a666c8e267c4abf8b98c845bf6f279c5dd581c45ab506b882f4f12e26654e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Boston Red Sox, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd14…d62abacked Boston Red Sox | 41c | 12,049$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 243 | 44.4%108 W · 135 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Minnesota Twins | 57c | 4,728$2,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,030.82 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e3…e736backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 3,000$1,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 1,960$1,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.08 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 42c | 1,383$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.13 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 1,033$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.75 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Minnesota Twins | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 1,000$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 999.99$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.99 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 903.98$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.63 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 708.78$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.5 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…56ffbacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 676.86$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.51 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 600$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 491.08$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.68 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 451.92$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.65 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Minnesota Twins | 60c | 378.26$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.19 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf6…0cbdbacked Minnesota Twins | 58c | 269.4$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.15 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 200.92$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.38 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 198.31$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.31 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Minnesota Twins | 74c | 167$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 134.12$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.67 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 100.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 99.43$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Boston Red Sox | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 84.65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 79.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 67.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Minnesota Twins | 63c | 41.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 37.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 37.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 29.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 21.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 18.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 17.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red SoxMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.