Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x659fafeb561a2e5b54032ffd5bb53181145ccb899cd812d6a21f7009563deb2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d78…e5c9backed Yes | 19c | 650$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.5 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 80c | 361.25$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.45 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 22c | 301.38$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.71 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 40c | 260$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 257.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8289…4473backed Yes | 24c | 221.27$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.17 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 184.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 174.22$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.27 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 34c | 162.48$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.66 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 38c | 160.93$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.78 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 131.12$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 31c | 129$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.01 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed No | 78c | 128.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 75c | 127.82$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.15 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 123.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 103.03$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.22 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 62c | 100.41$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.42 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 67c | 91.9$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 33c | 91.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.59 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 89.76$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 34c | 86.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.59 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 72c | 83.6$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 32c | 82.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 77.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ec…4526backed Yes | 31c | 77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 62c | 73.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 37c | 67.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 22c | 64.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 24c | 52.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b6…6c51backed No | 79c | 51.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 23c | 50.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 47.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 30c | 46.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 26c | 45.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 38.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 35.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 37c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 37c | 31.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98df…7870backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 76c | 14.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…4895backed No | 80c | 12.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.