Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdba6b456d7a765658ab80979a7946e8ac67987b9661efaf54666b0eb969af230
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 7c | 750$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 548.94$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.27 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8289…4473backed Yes | 39c | 205.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…e5c9backed Yes | 29c | 160.63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b6…4ad7backed No | 57c | 146.22$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.33 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad9…2647backed Yes | 14c | 137$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8406…b962backed No | 71c | 121$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 115.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 114.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 38c | 104.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…cf86backed No | 59c | 103.39$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 60c | 101.55$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 97.12$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 38c | 78.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ec…4526backed No | 66c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 62c | 72.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 70.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 64.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 32c | 48.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 46.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 38c | 45.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 44.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 75c | 40.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 38c | 39.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 37c | 34.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 32.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 46c | 32.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 38c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 57c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 39c | 31.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 30.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 70c | 29.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 26.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 64c | 26.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 45c | 25.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 62c | 21.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 61c | 18.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 70c | 18.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 18.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 68c | 17.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.