Earnings · resolved market
Will Krispy Kreme (DNUT) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65c68d4f327e216850570e8679ed63804afa1c0761a6fb79174d039fdb065c00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,427
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,427 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7463…972dbacked Yes | 80c | 695$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.18 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 37c | 469$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.85 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 38c | 399.98$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.99 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…75f2backed No | 69c | 373.78$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 62c | 299.98$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.99 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 30c | 218.18$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes | 41c | 165$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.01 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x087e…51c5backed Yes | 30c | 138.1$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.94 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 133.57$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.98 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 59c | 110$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f1…137cbacked No | 62c | 80.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ba…537dbacked Yes | 40c | 62.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.30per pick | 56cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xafd7…a65ebacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1b…8306backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 59.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed Yes | 30c | 56.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 61c | 55.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 26c | 53.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…2398backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 77c | 40.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 78cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…a9a9backed No | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1e…8213backed No | 60c | 37.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -5.0wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -77%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…0f43backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +100.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33e…c2ddbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5191…84e8backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6464…7899backed No | 63c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae7…80fcbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…4b45backed No | 62c | 19.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1756…c84dbacked No | 78c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.