Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6605a62c8f5f291e768c0810a40a47c607d0f9fe3e1a4eed69da1c220652fd3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 7c | 799.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2304…989dbacked Yes | 2c | 770$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 9c | 675.97$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 9c | 503.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd55b…a064backed Yes | 12c | 368.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 17c | 365.51$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.87 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53dd…283cbacked Yes | 5c | 301.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 5c | 290$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 7c | 251.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d8…cea4backed Yes | 14c | 242.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 18c | 228.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 16c | 225.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbce2…3aecbacked Yes | 20c | 219.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 20c | 216.59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.54 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 16c | 197.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d63…5dd1backed Yes | 22c | 193.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…a0b0backed Yes | 16c | 184.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 160.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0d…1d0cbacked Yes | 11c | 159.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 17c | 153.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 150.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 17c | 113.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 18c | 111.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 16c | 110.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 20c | 105.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 12c | 99.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…7e87backed Yes | 15c | 99.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 96.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a9…5165backed Yes | 16c | 95.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 21c | 91.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 85$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…914fbacked Yes | 18c | 82.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ed…e634backed Yes | 17c | 81.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e06…42f0backed Yes | 20c | 80.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 17c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4f…f3fdbacked Yes | 14c | 77.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2aa…3e28backed Yes | 17c | 71.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 17c | 69.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fdf…09b6backed Yes | 17c | 63.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 24c | 62.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 56.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6f…e9fabacked Yes | 26c | 49.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2946…8eb4backed Yes | 32c | 46.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 28c | 38.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…1445backed Yes | 39c | 33.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeec…707bbacked No | 69c | 23.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or below on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.