TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$73,874
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$76,126

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,874 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5f5a…bc49backed No4c2,113$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.45549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+40.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedee…7139backed Yes11c1,879$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,665.326330.2%19 W · 44 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes53c1,798$957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$840.9934624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed No1c1,500$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2196313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No27c1,201$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.024,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36f1…847fbacked Yes24c1,145$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871.795139.2%20 W · 31 L-5.9wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-27.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes31c987.97$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.8736648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed No3c981.07$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2586420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c8f…1181backed No2c973.81$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.042437.5%9 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed No17c859.99$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.744,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No3c793.67$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.881,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No19c752.12$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.0361821.2%131 W · 487 L-34.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes14c733.14$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.734,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed No3c586.58$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.761,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes72c451.09$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.423,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No64c441.01$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.263,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed No16c364.35$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9528441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No31c360$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.095,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked No33c349.99$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11415923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes19c339.99$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.0956627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes10c336.36$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.1956543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed No71c332.74$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.2716335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No12c332.14$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.841,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes21c309.65$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.5798738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes74c299.98$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.991,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No27c294.48$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.522,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No78c269.26$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.092,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed No79c254.63$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.2324466.8%163 W · 81 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No55c252.22$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.8112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xae6e…b4bebacked No8c249$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.213458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No40c240.35$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.183,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes10c231.61$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.7130428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No50c230$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.084,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No19c226.31$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.22,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes20c213.1$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.8933232.8%109 W · 223 L+18.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1048…e362backed Yes38c211.93$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.567153.5%38 W · 33 L+9.6wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+62%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5264…9a63backed Yes23c199.98$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.9974023.9%177 W · 563 L+23.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x336e…bcc3backed Yes32c197.04$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.64746.8%22 W · 25 L+7.7wins+0.16per pick31cpaid+35.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes15c194.91$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.8834918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No34c170$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.41,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab68…5844backed Yes30c164.52$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.522733.3%9 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes26c160.24$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.9312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe63…2de4backed Yes25c158.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.9911546.1%53 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes15c155.92$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.833535.2%118 W · 217 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No15c146.7$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5435854.7%196 W · 162 L-13.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No8c145.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.21,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No78c139.05$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.462,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes27c138.62$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.972,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes71c133.41$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6238655.7%215 W · 171 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9159…f1a8backed Yes24c131.24$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.066439.1%25 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes70c128.13$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1314645.2%66 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No41c119.5$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8552155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes20c113.77$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.641,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes25c112.08$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.695,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No39c110.31$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.164,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes12c110$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9781234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd54e…0e10backed No46c108.36$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb70d…253abacked Yes35c106.82$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.5815152.3%79 W · 72 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes22c106.72$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.134,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.5112735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca5…4342backed No74c100$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747656.6%43 W · 33 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick64cpaid+0.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5eed…c2a5backed No65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651050%5 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8d…3257backed Yes30c94.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.4920025%50 W · 150 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes24c91.84$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.4225536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd782…a950backed Yes46c90.79$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.112661.5%16 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+23.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes26c84.69$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.675,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes29c84.21$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.391,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2af9…d04ebacked No61c81.51$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-45%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1e1…7858backed Yes29c79.07$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.14837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+23.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc55…522bbacked Yes22c78.15$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.1917831.5%56 W · 122 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a0d…1d0cbacked No78c77.88$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.6837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes23c75.91$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.4523035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe867…4e6ebacked Yes52c75.66$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.215549.1%27 W · 28 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x784b…f19ebacked Yes19c74.52$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.494845.8%22 W · 26 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes23c73.78$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.5159125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes26c73.13$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.829941.1%123 W · 176 L+20.8wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No76c72$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.063,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes22c70$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.434633.8%117 W · 229 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No29c69.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.917,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf6e2…86c6backed No78c69.26$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542951.7%15 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed Yes29c69$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.6738258.9%225 W · 157 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d2b…b963backed No79c68.57$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4520%0 W · 2 L-1.6wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0653…3756backed No73c68.49$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid+7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f6f…e9fabacked Yes30c68.16$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.816431.3%20 W · 44 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-24%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9196…d934backed Yes79c67.31$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.264460.6%390 W · 254 L+92.2wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+36.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x0db3…5704backed Yes21c67$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.9319022.1%42 W · 148 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No65c66.38$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3439157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No76c66.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2986173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No76c65.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.742,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes24c59.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.5971031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba0f…9558backed Yes28c58.85$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.377237.5%27 W · 45 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb3eb…b529backed Yes30c56.8$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7661629.4%181 W · 435 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes23c56.65$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.5440741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3c77…7ae8backed Yes28c53.65$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.65633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes22c51.84$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.3510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No33c51.58$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0261752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x272e…6e99backed No70c50.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7616724.6%41 W · 126 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No65c50.41$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.761,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No76c50.18$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3754867.3%369 W · 179 L+26.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x973e…15c2backed No80c50$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.917364.7%112 W · 61 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick71cpaid-10.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.