Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77a8e6416cfce8e8946cc72d7e51b5bad0fbe260168326ad1ae930f97bea0f95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f5a…bc49backed No | 4c | 2,113$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedee…7139backed Yes | 11c | 1,879$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,665.32 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 53c | 1,798$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.99 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 1c | 1,500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 27c | 1,201$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.02 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f1…847fbacked Yes | 24c | 1,145$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.79 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 31c | 987.97$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.87 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 3c | 981.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8f…1181backed No | 2c | 973.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 17c | 859.99$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.74 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 3c | 793.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 19c | 752.12$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.03 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 733.14$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.73 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 3c | 586.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 72c | 451.09$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.42 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 64c | 441.01$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.26 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 16c | 364.35$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.95 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 31c | 360$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.09 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked No | 33c | 349.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 19c | 339.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.09 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 10c | 336.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.19 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed No | 71c | 332.74$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.27 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 12c | 332.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 21c | 309.65$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.57 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 74c | 299.98$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 27c | 294.48$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.52 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 269.26$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.09 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 79c | 254.63$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.23 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 252.22$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xae6e…b4bebacked No | 8c | 249$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 40c | 240.35$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 10c | 231.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.71 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 230$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.08 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 19c | 226.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 20c | 213.1$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.89 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…e362backed Yes | 38c | 211.93$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.56 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +62%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 23c | 199.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.99 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x336e…bcc3backed Yes | 32c | 197.04$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.6 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +7.7wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 15c | 194.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.88 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 34c | 170$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab68…5844backed Yes | 30c | 164.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.52 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 26c | 160.24$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 25c | 158.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.99 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 15c | 155.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.8 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 15c | 146.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 8c | 145.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 78c | 139.05$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.46 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 27c | 138.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.97 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 71c | 133.41$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9159…f1a8backed Yes | 24c | 131.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.06 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes | 70c | 128.13$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 41c | 119.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 20c | 113.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.64 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 25c | 112.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.69 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 39c | 110.31$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 12c | 110$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd54e…0e10backed No | 46c | 108.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 35c | 106.82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.58 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 22c | 106.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.13 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.51 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca5…4342backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5eed…c2a5backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 30c | 94.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.49 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 24c | 91.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.42 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd782…a950backed Yes | 46c | 90.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.11 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 84.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.67 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 29c | 84.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.39 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2af9…d04ebacked No | 61c | 81.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…7858backed Yes | 29c | 79.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 22c | 78.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.19 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0d…1d0cbacked No | 78c | 77.88$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 23c | 75.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.45 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…4e6ebacked Yes | 52c | 75.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784b…f19ebacked Yes | 19c | 74.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.49 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 23c | 73.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.51 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 26c | 73.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 72$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.06 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 22c | 70$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 69.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e2…86c6backed No | 78c | 69.26$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed Yes | 29c | 69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.67 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2b…b963backed No | 79c | 68.57$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0653…3756backed No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6f…e9fabacked Yes | 30c | 68.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 79c | 67.31$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 21c | 67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 65c | 66.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 76c | 66.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 76c | 65.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 24c | 59.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…9558backed Yes | 28c | 58.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.37 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 30c | 56.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 23c | 56.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c77…7ae8backed Yes | 28c | 53.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 51.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 33c | 51.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed No | 70c | 50.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 65c | 50.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 76c | 50.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or below on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.