TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,315
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,247

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,315 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes4c3,678$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.8134624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes5c1,880$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9386420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedee…7139backed Yes8c1,833$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.96330.2%19 W · 44 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes18c1,011$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.194,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No77c579.55$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.044,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes16c516.62$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.814,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed No80c416.77$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.726067.3%175 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes40c410.66$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.733,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes5c402.43$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.281,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes18c400.92$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.4361821.2%131 W · 487 L-34.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes21c351.93$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.8656627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes5c335.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.491,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes20c316.55$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3333232.8%109 W · 223 L+18.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes16c299.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4734918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes8c249.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.830428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4fd9…a49ebacked Yes32c231.88$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.243435.3%12 W · 22 L-5.4wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-31.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked Yes18c228.38$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1531219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No70c227$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.23,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab68…5844backed Yes24c210.35$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502733.3%9 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c8f…1181backed Yes5c204.09$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.12437.5%9 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes9c201.64$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6228742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes22c194.91$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes15c192.77$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.497,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked Yes15c192.02$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3561365.3%400 W · 213 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No75c176.17$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.185,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9d8…cea4backed Yes28c175.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503234.4%11 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes22c165.52$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.021,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes23c146.19$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2298738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes18c135.57$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5693034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9159…f1a8backed Yes24c134.28$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.256439.1%25 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No75c133.85$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.8441258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7554…0b84backed Yes35c132.89$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1614040.7%57 W · 83 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe63…2de4backed Yes31c128.23$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4011546.1%53 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No73c122.99$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2852155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes29c119.32$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0134633.8%117 W · 229 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes26c118.84$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3133535.2%118 W · 217 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9762…73e0backed Yes16c117.24$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.151136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid+10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc55…522bbacked Yes21c117.12$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2517831.5%56 W · 122 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No78c115.32$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.222,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed No65c109.08$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1812329.3%36 W · 87 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes20c105.62$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.335,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x96c4…e168backed No75c103.8$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.82864.3%18 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick57cpaid-0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes37c103.27$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.711,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a36…f270backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224825%12 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes19c99.94$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9936648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No74c90.08$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.821,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes26c90$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.481234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No76c79.23$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.032,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadaa…875abacked Yes19c78.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8713134.4%45 W · 86 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes29c76.47$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2225536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes26c74.55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No73c72$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.182,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes29c70.75$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.621236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes15c70.19$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2656543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba0f…9558backed Yes27c70$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.067237.5%27 W · 45 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes19c69.18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.082,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe867…4e6ebacked Yes26c65.17$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.775549.1%27 W · 28 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2aa…3e28backed Yes27c64.88$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.45959.3%35 W · 24 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e4b…ac6bbacked Yes19c64.66$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.435854.7%196 W · 162 L-13.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes31c64.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No74c64$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6450373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa811…75b8backed No77c64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.456070%42 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick73cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1e1…7858backed Yes33c61.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+23.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23b2…605cbacked No74c60.81$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8111459.6%68 W · 46 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes51c60.62$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3165353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f6f…e9fabacked Yes28c60.37$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.916431.3%20 W · 44 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-24%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No74c60.19$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8999963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x784b…f19ebacked Yes26c60.19$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.894845.8%22 W · 26 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f83…9847backed Yes18c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.95438.9%21 W · 33 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes23c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.871031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42b7…abffbacked Yes26c58.51$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2130665%199 W · 107 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes27c58.3$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.685,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7541…a0b0backed Yes31c58.03$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.995633.9%19 W · 37 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3eb…b529backed Yes30c57.63$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0461629.4%181 W · 435 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes35c52.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.559,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes24c52.78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5228441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a9…5165backed Yes29c51.9$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf33…0d65backed Yes35c50.92$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked Yes48c50.16$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8694066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No77c49.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.554867.3%369 W · 179 L+26.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No67c49.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.578663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x973e…15c2backed No72c49.99$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1417364.7%112 W · 61 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick71cpaid-10.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes22c49.47$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.677,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22ce…0dc4backed Yes25c49.1$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes28c48.35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.542,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No72c47$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.383,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed No71c46.97$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6223035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb0…cc8abacked Yes30c45.83$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.72437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c45$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.552,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ea7…e13fbacked Yes30c44.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.345925.4%15 W · 44 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa081…e7a0backed No65c44.38$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7438961.7%240 W · 149 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3221…f1bebacked No79c44.31$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.315354.7%29 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No74c42$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0498565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c8…b823backed No70c41.6$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.484271.4%30 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x358b…3722backed Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.252533.1%174 W · 351 L+21.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.234846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed Yes26c39.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4118837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes52c38.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208446.4%39 W · 45 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No78c37.98$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4861752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c77…7ae8backed Yes30c37.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.