Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66291131face6a5285cb3d4d0823340285efb9b8e215d9b9a862a0764b779894
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 1c | 1,700$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b5…ef92backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 25c | 235.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 204.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 29c | 166.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 29c | 150.89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 20c | 142.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 76c | 126.45$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 64c | 120.05$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.22 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed No | 64c | 120.05$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.22 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fe…b472backed Yes | 24c | 111$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 105.34$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 25c | 96.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 27c | 88.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 25c | 80.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 24c | 77.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 75.09$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 72c | 69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 67.72$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…c46ebacked Yes | 26c | 64.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 57.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 71c | 56.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 52.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8b…eee8backed Yes | 30c | 50.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 30c | 47.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5f…6fbdbacked Yes | 23c | 44.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 29c | 41.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 26c | 41.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 69c | 39.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 67c | 37.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 74c | 37.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 71c | 33.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…6030backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed No | 70c | 30.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…faadbacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 76c | 23.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 22.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 67c | 22.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 69c | 19.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 77c | 17.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.