Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7bc45ba100d15e6465f833ecae8ee661f31defe676a57033fd3d3b4caa9def8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a0f…7a59backed Yes | 75c | 954.66$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 27c | 585.68$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.65 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 423.02$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.69 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b5…ef92backed Yes | 30c | 335.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 23c | 255.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 204.79$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.66 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 182$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.7 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 59c | 156.24$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.77 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 40c | 152.87$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.19 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 67c | 150$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 62c | 149.29$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 25c | 140.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.5 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 22c | 124.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.79 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 28c | 118.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 27c | 114.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 113.12$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 32c | 109.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 16c | 100.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 63c | 99.4$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked No | 55c | 81.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 23c | 81.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 25c | 80.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 68c | 79.12$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 30c | 78.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf75f…b458backed Yes | 55c | 74.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 76c | 69$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 25c | 68.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x826c…80c6backed Yes | 73c | 63.33$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 70cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 62.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 40c | 59.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 68c | 58.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 53c | 55.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 75c | 48.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 45c | 48.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…7baebacked Yes | 48c | 48.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 45c | 46.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 31c | 41.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 27c | 40.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 31c | 37.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked No | 31c | 37.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 31c | 36.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 34c | 36.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9327…9800backed No | 59c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 30c | 34.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 52c | 33.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52fe…c258backed Yes | 33c | 33.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 58c | 31.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x262f…2198backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…24e8backed Yes | 66c | 30.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 30.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x846b…63b6backed Yes | 72c | 27.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked No | 43c | 27.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 53c | 26.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…faadbacked Yes | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 51c | 25.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 52c | 24.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…d79fbacked No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 49c | 20.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2013…7d68backed No | 60c | 17.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f79…d807backed Yes | 57c | 17.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…931dbacked Yes | 64c | 15.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 71c | 15.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc66c…7c32backed Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.