Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Heroic (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x663d95ec6181ea52f90e4bdd45260b774011b57b1cd179c88bf7b0b9341eb11a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Spiritof Team Spirit, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,208
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Heroic | 17c | 14,000$2,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,369.99 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc647…2f03backed Heroic | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Team Spirit | 78c | 8,940$6,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,955.39 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Heroic | 18c | 7,605$1,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,354.1 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x563b…774bbacked Team Spirit | 80c | 4,483$3,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.84 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…a7e0backed Heroic | 21c | 3,523$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.89 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1034…b26dbacked Team Spirit | 79c | 3,165$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.56 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Heroic | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Heroic | 25c | 1,200$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.9 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51c7…98aabacked Team Spirit | 76c | 1,050$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.94 | 291 | 60.1%175 W · 116 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Team Spirit | 73c | 817.7$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.05 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd47…f67bbacked Heroic | 12c | 817.5$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Heroic | 18c | 680$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Heroic | 19c | 450.1$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.85 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Heroic | 27c | 410.54$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.82 | 91 | 26.4%24 W · 67 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Heroic | 23c | 399.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…c925backed Team Spirit | 79c | 380.02$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Heroic | 27c | 333$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.91 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Heroic | 21c | 140$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc850…f772backed Team Spirit | 79c | 127.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…57bbbacked Team Spirit | 79c | 126.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 418 | 64.1%268 W · 150 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Heroic | 18c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Heroic | 21c | 118.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb91…8700backed Team Spirit | 74c | 102.7$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Team Spirit | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1249…90bdbacked Team Spirit | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed Team Spirit | 74c | 81.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…59a5backed Team Spirit | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f3…12a9backed Heroic | 24c | 59.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 117 | 39.3%46 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa39e…ac8dbacked Team Spirit | 78c | 42.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Team Spirit | 74c | 39.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe936…8944backed Team Spirit | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 74cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…67dbbacked Team Spirit | 77c | 16.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.