MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x664ad30db19ff55fcd6e31b20673cff4682dc02dae230b39fd0bbca0b1a5d106
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x08ad…208ebacked Over | 42c | 1,292$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.02 | 217 | 40.1%87 W · 130 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 64c | 1,055$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.4 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Under | 58c | 999.45$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.77 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 52c | 768.81$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 57c | 598.2$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.39 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Over | 55c | 500$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.05 | 182 | 39.6%72 W · 110 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Under | 49c | 490$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.9 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 52c | 473.79$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over | 43c | 418.6$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 41c | 289.45$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.8 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 43c | 228$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.04 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 57c | 208.74$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.76 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 57c | 207$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.01 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe782…e7d9backed Under | 63c | 182.37$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.38 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…87bdbacked Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 38c | 167.37$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.84 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb743…c116backed Over | 77c | 143.6$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Under | 21c | 120.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.36 | 160 | 19.4%31 W · 129 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 57c | 118.12$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.79 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Over | 43c | 116.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 478 | 50.4%241 W · 237 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf25…636dbacked Over | 34c | 106.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a46…196cbacked Over | 34c | 106.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…379fbacked Under | 20c | 103.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8924…3b00backed Over | 51c | 98.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 42c | 91.59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Under | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…b8e3backed Under | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49a8…b182backed Under | 68c | 63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x335f…2e1abacked Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 40c | 47.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 43c | 46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 56c | 44.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 58c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 40c | 33.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 47c | 32.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…1f6ebacked Under | 64c | 23.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Under | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 57c | 18.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- NRFI: Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.