MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e071311533e0e19d023035c848e61214154332b2cf640d3e61ca0a0f9328054
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 7,602$3,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,372.1 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Seattle Mariners | 65c | 5,228$3,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,829.92 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 1,293$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.23 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b3…6b95backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 1,163$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.29 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 1,011$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.52 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 792.72$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.95 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Cleveland Guardians | 69c | 703.27$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.66 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 428.57$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.57 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 400$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 199.2$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.48 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 199.2$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.48 | 271 | 46.9%127 W · 144 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 199.2$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.48 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 199.2$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.48 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 199.2$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.48 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Seattle Mariners | 35c | 199.2$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.48 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 199.2$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.48 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…1700backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 176.14$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.49 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 145.95$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.28 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Seattle Mariners | 26c | 133$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.42 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 109.66$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -10.5wins | -0.26per pick | 35cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Cleveland Guardians | 57c | 102.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Seattle Mariners | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3d84…4b14backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 79.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 19c | 78.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadcf…e210backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 76.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cleveland Guardians | 29c | 41.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Seattle Mariners | 52c | 27.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- NRFI: Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.