Fifa International · resolved market
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2025-09-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6656a1e8f617369afd43e8cdacbcea5ca773ac18b927e600323daa57d2e38b1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,243
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 71c | 2,402$1,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,705.7 | 103 | 66%68 W · 35 L | +12.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb10e…beedbacked No | 71c | 2,089$1,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,483.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 23c | 1,451$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.39 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 67c | 1,161$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.57 | 423 | 52%220 W · 203 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Yes | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c4…6ea5backed Yes | 32c | 608.11$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5032…d300backed Yes | 36c | 555$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.2 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 68c | 500$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 29c | 500$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355 | 331 | 49.5%164 W · 167 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 49c | 457.37$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.3 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa329…26a2backed Yes | 38c | 312.95$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Yes | 35c | 310$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.5 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Yes | 37c | 270.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.74 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 67c | 116.06$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.76 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 67c | 77$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 202 | 45.5%92 W · 110 L | -13.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca4b…0b9ebacked Yes | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed Yes | 33c | 72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.24 | 920 | 38.5%354 W · 566 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0e…b61cbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a66…5b12backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0de3…8383backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…4895backed Yes | 39c | 40.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e6…5468backed Yes | 39c | 35.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…6bbabacked Yes | 32c | 34.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45f1…8994backed No | 73c | 34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…ab20backed Yes | 39c | 30.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Saudi Arabia win on 2025-09-04?this page
- Will North Macedonia win on 2025-09-04?No won
- Will Saudi Arabia vs. North Macedonia end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.