MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x666266fc3df99074b0e4f3b102d93a64d73d4cdc0e084275f4b7bd7d78f34f3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Boston Red Sox, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x389d…a58fbacked Boston Red Sox | 37c | 1,331$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.63 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 505$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.85 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 391.11$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.8 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Boston Red Sox | 29c | 295.48$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.27 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Baltimore Orioles | 71c | 271.22$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.65 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 268.41$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.31 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 182.34$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.64 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 157.63$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.05 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 150.62$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…7b56backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 131.52$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 120.49$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.17 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 106.4$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x483e…095cbacked Boston Red Sox | 35c | 76.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 61.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68f4…94a8backed Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 57.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 57.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Boston Red Sox | 36c | 55.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 52.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 49.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 24.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 21.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 13.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 14.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-6.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-7.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.