MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26f5f6dddc3dc38b6a9db6e0dc9d9e89570041ccb95fa8448c2607711aae5eb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,051
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 761.77$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.88 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 72c | 572.37$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.12 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 533.93$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.71 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 502.17$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.39 | 165 | 43%71 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 500$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Baltimore Orioles | 78c | 425.89$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.18 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2513…91fbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 356.88$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.4 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c59…ad51backed Boston Red Sox | 31c | 307.91$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.76 | 215 | 45.6%98 W · 117 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Boston Red Sox | 64c | 260$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.4 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8087…47efbacked Boston Red Sox | 8c | 229.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Boston Red Sox | 64c | 136.05$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.07 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Boston Red Sox | 22c | 99.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Boston Red Sox | 43c | 69.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Boston Red Sox | 64c | 52.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 49.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 48.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 45.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 37.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Boston Red Sox | 64c | 35.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Baltimore Orioles | 69c | 31.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Baltimore Orioles | 75c | 28.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 28.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Baltimore Orioles | 80c | 20.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Baltimore Orioles | 79c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 13.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 14.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-6.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-7.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.