Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x668b231a4d6c0d3ebd811ffbad7b9bbf5406a1f9422f25390876ce779bab46a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,361
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,361 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x35cd…a60abacked No | 62c | 363.88$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 73c | 266.05$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.83 | 288 | 37.5%108 W · 180 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 38c | 179.1$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.31 | 646 | 24.5%158 W · 488 L | -19.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 51c | 146.52$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.87 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 132.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 494 | 49.2%243 W · 251 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 50c | 121.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.36 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 24c | 120.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 48c | 114.12$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 414 | 43.2%179 W · 235 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 104$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed Yes | 44c | 103.03$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 74c | 100.04$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 880 | 48%422 W · 458 L | +41.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x021d…6502backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 50c | 98.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 256 | 53.9%138 W · 118 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 48c | 95.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 24c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 66c | 82.64$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 52c | 79.54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 48c | 67.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 20c | 62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 552 | 38.8%214 W · 338 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 55.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 48.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfa…3d6cbacked No | 69c | 47.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ee…edcbbacked Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 45c | 43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 27c | 42.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,178 | 40.6%478 W · 700 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 52c | 42.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 239 | 49.4%118 W · 121 L | -13.3wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 45c | 33.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 46c | 32.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 54c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 346 | 67.6%234 W · 112 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 30.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 53c | 29.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…e849backed No | 55c | 25.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…d610backed Yes | 46c | 22.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc60…ce27backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…1e2abacked No | 50c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 74c | 18.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 69c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 289 | 52.6%152 W · 137 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.