Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x668df4feef54f597256e4a1043e707ab9706e1e6ac38490603ca1257bacf459c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 1,019$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 425.25$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.79 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 317.73$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 23c | 186.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 21c | 150.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f40…887cbacked Yes | 14c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e25…c7dbbacked No | 80c | 147.98$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 11c | 142.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 13c | 141.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 76c | 126$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes | 17c | 122.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 12c | 113$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 29c | 111.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 108.13$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 92$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e1…4995backed Yes | 14c | 79.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 15c | 78.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 21c | 73.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 23c | 73.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 36c | 69.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…7059backed Yes | 17c | 60.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked No | 64c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 55.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 25c | 54.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 80c | 54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 25c | 48.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 30c | 35.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 35.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 79c | 35.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 77c | 31.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 76c | 28.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 77c | 27.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 78c | 25.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 67c | 25.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 73c | 24.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 66c | 20.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2491…8456backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 76cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 80c | 13.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.72 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.