Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cc17999fefd223bd45d2a5252ed9da664c1451e2a3ac1dfe8ccbacf00dac95e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 45c | 880.02$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.75 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 39c | 632.77$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.19 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 30c | 473.56$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.24 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 70c | 344.06$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.9 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 28c | 331.76$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.67 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 67c | 301.41$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.91 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed No | 67c | 299.39$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.39 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 252.67$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.37 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 229.97$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 188.09$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.71 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 11c | 163.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 36c | 136.59$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 61c | 133.98$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 129.53$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 72c | 118.26$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 115.62$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 105$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 38c | 104.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 43c | 96.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…f311backed No | 55c | 96$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 66c | 93$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 87.66$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 57c | 85.91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 26c | 80.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 61c | 75.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked Yes | 15c | 71.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 67.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 65c | 63.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 35c | 60.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x100c…edc9backed Yes | 41c | 59.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 25c | 59.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 58.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…de7dbacked No | 61c | 54.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 40c | 49.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 29c | 48.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 48.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 28c | 46.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8867…7683backed Yes | 37c | 44.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 54c | 44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 36c | 44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 39.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 70c | 39.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 56c | 38.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 60c | 37.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 63c | 36.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 52c | 34.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 65c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 38c | 31.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 71c | 31.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…b6ddbacked No | 76c | 30.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 72c | 30.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 56c | 26.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 56c | 25.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 22.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 73c | 21.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…e8e1backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 70c | 18.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 69c | 17.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed No | 73c | 17.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 68c | 16.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.