Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2529b516f62707d7ac0e00261a49c2cc0c129c4536f9013e621becf2bf5f043e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 46c | 376.1$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.44 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 349.49$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 39c | 333.2$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.41 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 46c | 270.47$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.42 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 43c | 238.18$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.22 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 57c | 226.04$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.95 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 46c | 218.5$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.99 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 211.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8752…31b6backed Yes | 57c | 195.4$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.77 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 42c | 155.45$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.44 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 125.04$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked Yes | 43c | 107.74$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.49 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 59c | 107.47$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.66 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 104.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 100.34$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 94.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.28 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 92.27$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.01 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 38c | 88.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.64 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 38c | 79.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 38c | 69.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 34c | 65.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 61c | 64.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 43c | 62.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 56c | 58.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 53c | 55.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 45c | 55.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13d4…9705backed Yes | 75c | 53.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 54c | 52.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 76c | 52.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 44c | 49.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 73c | 45.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 55c | 43.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 36c | 43.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed No | 56c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 39.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 57c | 39.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ae…c79fbacked Yes | 55c | 36.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -10.0wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 53c | 33.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 61c | 33.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e1…4995backed No | 49c | 33.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…a8f1backed Yes | 45c | 32.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 56c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca61…cd2dbacked No | 57c | 31.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4932…ef13backed No | 57c | 31.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 52c | 30.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b6…256cbacked Yes | 46c | 30.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +134.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 60c | 30.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 60c | 24.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 43c | 24.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 57c | 23.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 61c | 21.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3614…2397backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 57c | 18.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9f…d7c1backed Yes | 77c | 18.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 67c | 16.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.