Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will CD Tondela win on 2026-01-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66937f248d26aa01cde1be1c98e0f2688f0f6e0682290ad2fdcff7609e38bb60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,048
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,048 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x274f…fbf4backed No | 73c | 10,802$7,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,954.14 | 43 | 79.1%34 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 27c | 7,927$2,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,107.41 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 27c | 3,600$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Yes | 23c | 2,460$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.8 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 74c | 2,269$1,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.55 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0c3dbacked No | 73c | 1,900$1,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 27c | 1,639$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.37 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 76c | 1,044$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.16 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 25c | 824$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.24 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x336a…1915backed No | 76c | 657.89$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Yes | 27c | 403.79$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.02 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed No | 77c | 400.01$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a0…05c4backed Yes | 30c | 327.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked No | 74c | 304.05$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.05 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 23c | 255.77$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 19c | 248$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 250 | 46.8%117 W · 133 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34e5…7dd4backed No | 77c | 237.81$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.7 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd120…19fcbacked No | 73c | 219.18$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.18 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 27c | 170.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Yes | 24c | 151.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 71 | 15.5%11 W · 60 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 76c | 144.45$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 20c | 135.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 479 | 26.9%129 W · 350 L | -32.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 27c | 132$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 670 | 50.6%339 W · 331 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 144 | 68.8%99 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…64e1backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 43cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 69c | 95.16$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Yes | 24c | 88.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f3…0d57backed Yes | 25c | 88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Yes | 24c | 83.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8276…1204backed No | 72c | 69.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 24c | 68.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 490 | 46.9%230 W · 260 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 76c | 65.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 169 | 53.8%91 W · 78 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…a98bbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Yes | 27c | 50.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 46 | 76.1%35 W · 11 L | +7.7wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed No | 74c | 48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…8045backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 29c | 37.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Yes | 29c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6185…e42fbacked No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked No | 72c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked No | 71c | 30.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed No | 77c | 29.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 143 | 60.8%87 W · 56 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 76c | 26.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 137 | 70.8%97 W · 40 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc40d…4813backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8535…2024backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9737…a9e9backed No | 77c | 21.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…eb18backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 77c | 17.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 84 | 29.8%25 W · 59 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CD Tondela win on 2026-01-11?this page
- Will Moreirense FC vs. CD Tondela end in a draw?No won
- Will Moreirense FC win on 2026-01-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.