South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Unión vs. CA Sarmiento: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x669774c8b63027e9763e8f9c831670d365ab400a2b80a2d54fd8f0dae1863f52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,991
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,991 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34a1…7622backed Under | 59c | 8,761$5,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,206.82 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 1c | 3,677$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 96 | 8.3%8 W · 88 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 41c | 3,211$1,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,894.43 | 3,817 | 38.4%1,467 W · 2,350 L | -30.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 39c | 3,182$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,935.52 | 5,831 | 45.4%2,647 W · 3,184 L | +99.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41d2…d7c9backed Over | 41c | 2,198$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,291.29 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…c85dbacked Under | 2c | 1,594$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 20c | 1,402$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.88 | 210 | 43.8%92 W · 118 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…ad4bbacked Over | 20c | 1,050$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 27c | 669.55$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.32 | 1,511 | 46.1%697 W · 814 L | -15.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 69c | 385.69$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.9 | 2,376 | 34.7%824 W · 1,552 L | -27.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…e756backed Under | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 19c | 300$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243 | 2,015 | 51.4%1,036 W · 979 L | +44.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under | 59c | 258.62$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.59 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Under | 80c | 255.1$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.08 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Under | 61c | 210.89$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.15 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 76c | 183.65$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.1 | 2,608 | 39.3%1,024 W · 1,584 L | -29.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 80c | 170$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 80c | 89$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 1,688 | 50.8%857 W · 831 L | -4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 21c | 70$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 451 | 39.5%178 W · 273 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 39c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 501 | 41.5%208 W · 293 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…89c6backed Under | 76c | 36.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Unión vs. CA Sarmiento: O/U 3.5this page
- CA Unión vs. CA Sarmiento: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Unión vs. CA Sarmiento: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Unión vs. CA Sarmiento: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Unión vs. CA Sarmiento: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Unión vs. CA Sarmiento: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Unión vs. CA Sarmiento: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Unión vs. CA Sarmiento: O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Unión vs. CA Sarmiento: O/U 4.5Over won
- CA Unión vs. CA Sarmiento: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CA Sarmiento (-1.5)CA Unión won
- Spread: CA Unión (-1.5)CA Unión won
- Spread: CA Unión (-2.5)CA Unión won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.