South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Unión vs. CA Sarmiento: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e640931a0a51e98d5da5c35f6f3141a0c87ed75eef79d53c6cdeb5c1ed8e600
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 66c | 4,258$2,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,437.42 | 2,376 | 34.7%824 W · 1,552 L | -27.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 32c | 3,940$1,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275.77 | 2,608 | 39.3%1,024 W · 1,584 L | -29.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Under | 31c | 2,375$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.08 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…7622backed Under | 43c | 2,296$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.3 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 67c | 2,259$1,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.47 | 210 | 43.8%92 W · 118 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 60c | 2,077$1,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.65 | 1,511 | 46.1%697 W · 814 L | -15.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 33c | 1,994$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.1 | 3,817 | 38.4%1,467 W · 2,350 L | -30.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Under | 28c | 1,607$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.94 | 161 | 45.3%73 W · 88 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Over | 71c | 1,382$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.04 | 230 | 67%154 W · 76 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 70c | 1,231$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.01 | 5,831 | 45.4%2,647 W · 3,184 L | +99.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…c53bbacked Over | 67c | 431.79$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f6…73fabacked Over | 72c | 319.44$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.44 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 69c | 299.97$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Over | 69c | 288.4$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.4 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…5b51backed Under | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 32c | 112.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 1,261 | 53.6%676 W · 585 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Over | 68c | 112.95$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 65c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 501 | 41.5%208 W · 293 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 32c | 78.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 2,655 | 54.2%1,440 W · 1,215 L | +27.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 68c | 65.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2,015 | 51.4%1,036 W · 979 L | +44.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…7bc2backed Under | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Over | 70c | 58.52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe065…df75backed Over | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.6wins | -0.26per pick | 53cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 451 | 39.5%178 W · 273 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 33c | 41.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,688 | 50.8%857 W · 831 L | -4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 68c | 34.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 198 | 40.9%81 W · 117 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 519 | 50.9%264 W · 255 L | +29.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f67…1656backed Over | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aea…34b7backed Over | 73c | 23.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcd…a901backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Unión vs. CA Sarmiento: O/U 1.5this page
- CA Unión vs. CA Sarmiento: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Unión vs. CA Sarmiento: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Unión vs. CA Sarmiento: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Unión vs. CA Sarmiento: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Unión vs. CA Sarmiento: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Unión vs. CA Sarmiento: O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Unión vs. CA Sarmiento: O/U 3.5Over won
- CA Unión vs. CA Sarmiento: O/U 4.5Over won
- CA Unión vs. CA Sarmiento: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CA Sarmiento (-1.5)CA Unión won
- Spread: CA Unión (-1.5)CA Unión won
- Spread: CA Unión (-2.5)CA Unión won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.