South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Unión vs. CA Sarmiento: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8390d6b552c42bc1851233a526053bf7f6167d0e3350b40fa62e24115466423
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41d2…d7c9backed Over | 40c | 8,091$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,891.15 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 1c | 3,677$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 96 | 8.3%8 W · 88 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Under | 59c | 3,505$2,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,063.35 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 37c | 2,849$1,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,784.89 | 2,376 | 34.7%824 W · 1,552 L | -27.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…7622backed Under | 45c | 2,839$1,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,277.64 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 60c | 1,458$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.53 | 2,015 | 51.4%1,036 W · 979 L | +44.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 58c | 1,287$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.25 | 5,831 | 45.4%2,647 W · 3,184 L | +99.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Under | 56c | 1,264$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.58 | 230 | 67%154 W · 76 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 60c | 1,250$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 1,308 | 53.7%702 W · 606 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 44c | 1,168$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.33 | 2,608 | 39.3%1,024 W · 1,584 L | -29.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 60c | 730.33$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.2 | 1,261 | 53.6%676 W · 585 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 3c | 723$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 218 | 51.8%113 W · 105 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d06…755bbacked Under | 61c | 719.67$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…ab50backed Over | 51c | 603$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.47 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 59c | 549.69$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.17 | 3,817 | 38.4%1,467 W · 2,350 L | -30.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…9013backed Over | 43c | 493.34$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.2 | 188 | 43.6%82 W · 106 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…c161backed Under | 70c | 428.57$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4a…e7cabacked Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Under | 17c | 359.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…5b51backed Under | 47c | 305.32$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.5 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 55c | 268.52$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.94 | 1,511 | 46.1%697 W · 814 L | -15.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859f…0f26backed Over | 39c | 267.79$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 59c | 215.54$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.33 | 3,449 | 51.4%1,773 W · 1,676 L | +22.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 59c | 189.87$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.69 | 1,688 | 50.8%857 W · 831 L | -4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 40c | 159.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.39 | 501 | 41.5%208 W · 293 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x002f…92f3backed Under | 59c | 127.12$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…24c2backed Under | 52c | 125$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 40c | 123.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.27 | 723 | 36.9%267 W · 456 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 43c | 109.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.3 | 1,489 | 37.4%557 W · 932 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Under | 60c | 91.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3f…c7f3backed Under | 50c | 84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 59c | 72.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 2,655 | 54.2%1,440 W · 1,215 L | +27.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ab…0dc8backed Over | 42c | 70.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44b0…a570backed Over | 41c | 70.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +141%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 54c | 69.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 2,177 | 43.5%948 W · 1,229 L | -57.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 50c | 61.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 1,272 | 56.1%713 W · 559 L | +72.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbaba…cf38backed Under | 59c | 41.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -57%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c2…190dbacked Under | 50c | 40.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4b…d965backed Over | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 58c | 38.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…4f9dbacked Over | 42c | 38.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 145 | 53.1%77 W · 68 L | +16.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 57c | 34.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 256 | 53.1%136 W · 120 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x545d…70ffbacked Under | 58c | 31.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 50cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed Under | 60c | 30.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…89c6backed Under | 70c | 29.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…5e64backed Under | 76c | 27.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 934 | 45.1%421 W · 513 L | -28.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under | 51c | 24.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 50c | 22.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Under | 48c | 21.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 198 | 40.9%81 W · 117 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb435…b97cbacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Unión vs. CA Sarmiento: O/U 2.5this page
- CA Unión vs. CA Sarmiento: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Unión vs. CA Sarmiento: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Unión vs. CA Sarmiento: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Unión vs. CA Sarmiento: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Unión vs. CA Sarmiento: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Unión vs. CA Sarmiento: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Unión vs. CA Sarmiento: O/U 3.5Over won
- CA Unión vs. CA Sarmiento: O/U 4.5Over won
- CA Unión vs. CA Sarmiento: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CA Sarmiento (-1.5)CA Unión won
- Spread: CA Unión (-1.5)CA Unión won
- Spread: CA Unión (-2.5)CA Unión won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.