Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x669f9c37f7eeb1261025c678e0391d9fa946cd21f42685fdbd7f405ef3e7ff44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44a5…abfdbacked Yes | 46c | 482.43$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.51 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 12c | 263.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.34 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 20c | 255.77$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.99 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 41c | 254.84$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.34 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 68c | 239.99$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.94 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 6c | 238.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.05 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 32c | 219.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.86 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 212.95$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed No | 69c | 189$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.26 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked No | 69c | 180$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.6 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 40c | 178$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 44c | 150$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 137.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.48 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 55c | 118$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 111.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.23 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 109.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 30c | 105$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 56c | 102.21$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 101.67$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.97 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 69c | 99.96$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.47 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 98.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 79c | 93.81$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.12 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 93.42$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 26c | 92.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.72 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 86.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 79c | 83.7$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 63c | 82.83$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 81.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 71c | 80.44$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.29 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 50c | 69.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes | 29c | 69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.13 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 47c | 68.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b7…eeb5backed Yes | 19c | 64.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 74c | 62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 33c | 59.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 71c | 51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98cf…852abacked Yes | 63c | 47.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 72cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 68c | 41.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 29c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 69c | 34.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 55c | 34.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 62c | 34.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 67c | 33.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 66c | 31.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 34c | 31.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 48c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 71c | 29.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 67c | 26.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 44c | 26.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8759…4fe3backed Yes | 51c | 25.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 76c | 24.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3163…15c2backed Yes | 54c | 23.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked No | 79c | 19.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 75c | 13.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C or below on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.