Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4cdd2078ba805c1aa6abb3eabb3cdfff8eb339455af645d4c7e4bca6c829fdc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 36c | 309.62$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.9 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3a…faeebacked Yes | 64c | 276.04$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 64c | 273.3$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.63 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 54c | 241.85$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.41 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 202.06$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.01 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 158.09$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 32c | 157.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed No | 65c | 146.02$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.61 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 55c | 140.38$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.69 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 38c | 129.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 47c | 129.97$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.87 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 77c | 127.12$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 44c | 123.84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.94 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 35c | 109.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 85.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 85.46$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 46c | 85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 72c | 84.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 81.31$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 52c | 66.77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 44c | 65.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 29c | 60.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 49c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 33c | 54.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 52c | 48.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0d06backed No | 57c | 46.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 46c | 46.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84b7…eeb5backed Yes | 26c | 46.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 31c | 42.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 42.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 27c | 42.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 28c | 39.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x632e…6a56backed Yes | 42c | 37.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 50c | 34.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 51c | 34.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 42c | 33.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 33.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 46c | 30.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 67c | 30.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 27.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 60c | 25.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 48c | 25.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 72c | 24.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 48c | 23.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf424…6e3ebacked No | 73c | 20.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 55c | 18.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 69c | 15.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C or below on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.