Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 54°F or higher on March 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66e068225453385fc26d46f61a501c21586ae6352334fdf1411d32f26dfacf8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $239,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $239,627 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d87…f13cbacked Yes | 7c | 60,696$4,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,033.6 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed Yes | 14c | 33,227$4,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,783.99 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 5c | 7,558$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.72 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 4c | 2,534$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.11 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0b…6c40backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 6c | 2,428$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.47 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 3c | 2,325$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.96 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…0efebacked Yes | 1c | 2,207$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 3c | 1,789$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,562$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 1c | 1,468$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc56…b1b7backed Yes | 1c | 1,418$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 1,409$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed Yes | 11c | 1,380$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaffc…ce04backed Yes | 4c | 1,353$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…c22ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,086$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 1c | 995.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c1…9615backed Yes | 4c | 838.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 8c | 742.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfe…989bbacked Yes | 10c | 714.28$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 663.49$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b3…7ee4backed Yes | 3c | 645.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf2…c7abbacked Yes | 2c | 527.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 5c | 434.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a0…6539backed Yes | 3c | 433$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 7c | 418.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd393…0744backed Yes | 4c | 414.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 50 | 2%1 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -60%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2b…1477backed Yes | 7c | 397.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc8…df84backed Yes | 5c | 381.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 3c | 348.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c63…37e7backed Yes | 6c | 344.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bba…a69fbacked Yes | 6c | 285.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 4c | 275.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0e…f1d5backed Yes | 14c | 235.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…4360backed Yes | 7c | 204.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 13c | 186.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…e2b0backed Yes | 13c | 182.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e6…4879backed Yes | 15c | 144.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…82a0backed Yes | 18c | 122.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb708…ef3dbacked Yes | 9c | 114.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9574…d181backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3744…5b16backed Yes | 10c | 98.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed No | 79c | 24.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 54°F or higher on March 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 39°F or below on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on March 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.