Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x982813552a58e4ea0e1a947019ca8dd6f4c787bc33bb5e58fdb3d6b6c687934c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,540 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb005…374fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,276$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 24c | 2,222$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.46 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked Yes | 3c | 1,026$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6d…33a6backed Yes | 3c | 740.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 729.89$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.95 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 3c | 638.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 2c | 559.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a0…6539backed Yes | 15c | 394.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.08 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 15c | 350$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 328.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 326.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 16c | 277.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 79c | 265.42$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.74 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 256.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 24c | 246.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 17c | 197.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 22c | 190.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 15c | 170$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 160$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 17c | 145.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…e2b0backed Yes | 15c | 144.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 120.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 16c | 112$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb424…4fd7backed Yes | 26c | 108.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed Yes | 17c | 102$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb329…4161backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…3578backed Yes | 22c | 92.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…c231backed Yes | 22c | 92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 15c | 72.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x723a…c574backed Yes | 22c | 63.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…c502backed No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe365…3ae4backed No | 74c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 76c | 35.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 32.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 76c | 25.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc5…6314backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…35b8backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 80c | 24.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…bc9dbacked No | 79c | 23.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…589ebacked No | 77c | 22.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f9…f99abacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 78cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6876…d587backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74a0…f10dbacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 13.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 39°F or below on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 54°F or higher on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on March 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.