Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cd79fd2a9313280611ee66684bcae5994a4ab36e2b6b8c373bc0118a9b7bb2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,420 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x261f…2fa4backed No | 78c | 15,000$11,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,300 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c4…6536backed Yes | 22c | 15,000$3,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,300 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 26c | 1,454$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.88 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 71c | 1,146$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 2c | 1,060$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d40…7b4fbacked Yes | 19c | 427.55$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.91 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 426.26$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.46 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 79c | 408.54$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.11 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 28c | 376.63$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.06 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1762…c83ebacked Yes | 18c | 375.27$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.55 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 365.04$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 19c | 354.85$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.45 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a0…6539backed Yes | 41c | 320.59$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.46 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 76c | 317.41$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.59 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 316.05$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 26c | 276.63$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb4…9ed0backed Yes | 27c | 221.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07c2…7a17backed No | 70c | 214.1$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.47 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 59c | 205.5$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.26 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 204.78$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 18c | 190.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 27c | 184.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 71c | 155.82$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 39c | 148.91$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.74 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 28c | 138.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 75c | 133.25$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 22c | 128.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 127$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 28c | 125$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 24c | 120.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 20c | 120.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 36c | 120$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 36c | 112$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfed…e080backed Yes | 36c | 111.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 41c | 107.22$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 27c | 105.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 73c | 105$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 74c | 100.77$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e34…b86fbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e3…5062backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 99.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 88.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc437…0f42backed Yes | 48c | 82.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 19c | 79.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…204dbacked Yes | 25c | 79.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 64c | 78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x251e…04b6backed Yes | 26c | 76.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…bc9dbacked No | 68c | 75.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…dbe8backed Yes | 27c | 75.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 27c | 73.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…f630backed Yes | 26c | 73.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1887…ebc9backed Yes | 20c | 71.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 36c | 69.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 26c | 66.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 27c | 65.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…022dbacked Yes | 23c | 64.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed No | 67c | 64.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccf…9ea3backed No | 78c | 59.3$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 57.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5286…1b4cbacked No | 75c | 52.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 35c | 51.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e3…d161backed Yes | 29c | 51.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed No | 68c | 50.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…e2b0backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 27c | 39.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 63c | 39.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51b2…3b30backed Yes | 34c | 39.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…6813backed Yes | 32c | 37.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc293…c389backed No | 79c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 38 | 86.8%33 W · 5 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 70cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd8…d4d4backed No | 72c | 31.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 80c | 31.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 79c | 30.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 62c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 60c | 28.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 76c | 26.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5869…071dbacked No | 67c | 24.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1525…cd1abacked No | 72c | 21.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce45…aa7bbacked No | 71c | 21.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ef…0cf9backed No | 56c | 20.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 70c | 19.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked No | 71c | 18.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 75c | 18.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0848…503abacked No | 56c | 17.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…e1b2backed No | 76c | 15.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 60 | 71.7%43 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb062…bc8bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 39°F or below on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 54°F or higher on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on March 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.