Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ca51ce91b6fe26ddeb28ab4ec540e4403b82c35eae59c0826b097c5f4a908f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,109 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9065…b9a3backed No | 0c | 11,100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33b6…597bbacked No | 2c | 3,161$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.14 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb13c…4af2backed No | 1c | 3,100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc876…8711backed No | 1c | 2,807$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 3c | 2,236$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.12 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5c…cdf7backed No | 2c | 2,008$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ea…c587backed No | 3c | 1,970$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeda1…b720backed No | 2c | 1,876$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 24c | 1,550$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,178.76 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 33c | 1,542$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.73 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…b631backed No | 1c | 1,335$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 75c | 1,214$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.08 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6637…1185backed No | 3c | 900$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6d…33a6backed No | 2c | 832.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 761.65$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 574.31$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.38 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 37c | 544.05$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.96 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 20c | 484.91$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.97 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 4c | 457.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 441.03$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.95 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 4c | 400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 35c | 392.34$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.18 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 22c | 390.91$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.35 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 30c | 349$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.69 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 12c | 342.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a0…6539backed Yes | 29c | 300.63$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.41 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 64c | 297.26$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.91 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 77c | 296.71$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.54 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 29c | 276.38$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.41 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73da…aa5fbacked No | 4c | 258.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 255.65$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.87 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 250$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.89 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d40…7b4fbacked Yes | 23c | 243.43$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.27 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 72c | 241$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.52 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 12c | 240.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x901d…30fdbacked No | 8c | 224.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee7b…8687backed No | 7c | 204.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44fa…ecc4backed No | 6c | 204.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 77c | 204$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.44 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 22c | 190.75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.63 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 167.48$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.21 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 137.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd05e…3526backed Yes | 28c | 113$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc51…e74abacked Yes | 21c | 110$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 27c | 104.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.12 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc437…0f42backed Yes | 68c | 101.96$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 18c | 100.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.42 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.43 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 26c | 95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.45 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23f7…d5e9backed No | 14c | 93.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 46c | 91.04$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 32c | 86.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.62 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda59…51c5backed Yes | 41c | 85.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.13 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 48c | 83.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb342…79e3backed No | 71c | 80$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.13 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 77c | 77.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 25c | 76.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.13 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6f…f5f0backed Yes | 27c | 74.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.58 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 25c | 70$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb4…9ed0backed Yes | 25c | 69.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.82 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1887…ebc9backed Yes | 24c | 67.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 72c | 66.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 16c | 66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.7 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 77c | 64.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 69c | 62.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…6813backed Yes | 45c | 61.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…3578backed Yes | 29c | 55.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.09 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…567abacked No | 72c | 52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…dbe8backed Yes | 29c | 51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0848…503abacked No | 58c | 50.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 65c | 46.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 30c | 39.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…c502backed No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 38.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 70c | 37.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 76c | 37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…78c9backed No | 70c | 36.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e8…ecc1backed No | 72c | 36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99b8…d3e9backed No | 79c | 34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 80c | 31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked No | 79c | 30.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 46c | 29.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f27…71f1backed Yes | 34c | 29.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb655…aae7backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 60c | 28.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed No | 76c | 28.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…35b8backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…3fcfbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7008…b748backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 39°F or below on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 54°F or higher on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on March 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.