Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs OG - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66e7466f2ce5579339e3da3067e3003f52dc6ef09e68536f809654b51dcd30c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, OG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,701
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,701 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x18bb…e5cdbacked OG | 29c | 8,017$2,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,334.22 | 130 | 20%26 W · 104 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed OG | 30c | 5,188$1,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,556.39 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Aurora | 70c | 4,286$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,285.71 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed OG | 30c | 3,780$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120.71 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Aurora | 73c | 3,719$2,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,004.52 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…0958backed Aurora | 69c | 3,000$2,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed Aurora | 70c | 2,982$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.11 | 189 | 54%102 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…e8fbbacked OG | 8c | 1,802$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.68 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed OG | 30c | 1,751$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.48 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…1d79backed OG | 32c | 1,629$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed OG | 17c | 1,161$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.7 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…16acbacked Aurora | 68c | 1,101$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.45 | 229 | 54.1%124 W · 105 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked OG | 26c | 1,084$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.22 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Aurora | 70c | 947.07$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.12 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked OG | 14c | 800$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.93 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x974a…98c3backed Aurora | 79c | 739.99$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.22 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8010…c05fbacked Aurora | 71c | 710.01$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.44 | 169 | 32.5%55 W · 114 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Aurora | 71c | 704.51$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.51 | 203 | 67%136 W · 67 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…9d1fbacked OG | 24c | 700$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 167 | 25.7%43 W · 124 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked Aurora | 70c | 638.57$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.57 | 154 | 61.7%95 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed OG | 28c | 509.4$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.63 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked OG | 31c | 499.76$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.2 | 171 | 33.9%58 W · 113 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Aurora | 76c | 457.35$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.06 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3804…6d61backed Aurora | 70c | 428.57$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed OG | 25c | 405.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Aurora | 70c | 403.26$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.98 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked Aurora | 69c | 400$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked OG | 8c | 396.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd679…9ccfbacked Aurora | 70c | 390$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb68…c695backed Aurora | 80c | 372.89$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.48 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…91ecbacked Aurora | 73c | 312.2$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.12 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…9a41backed Aurora | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 230 | 50.9%117 W · 113 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa7…003fbacked Aurora | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 450 | 52.4%236 W · 214 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked OG | 28c | 298.9$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.9 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1b…5adbbacked OG | 16c | 254$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed OG | 14c | 233.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed OG | 16c | 231.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 576 | 54.5%314 W · 262 L | +29.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Aurora | 69c | 206$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.86 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…dcb9backed Aurora | 69c | 164.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 285 | 49.1%140 W · 145 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x598c…cc0bbacked OG | 10c | 160.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x461f…8719backed Aurora | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…80edbacked OG | 8c | 130.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7e…30a5backed OG | 20c | 101.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa900…5acebacked Aurora | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd417…327abacked Aurora | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 106 | 41.5%44 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2757…55f0backed Aurora | 70c | 86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa8…d75fbacked OG | 19c | 85.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…5473backed Aurora | 70c | 77.42$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…e183backed Aurora | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 249 | 55.4%138 W · 111 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb97e…262bbacked OG | 20c | 75.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 526 | 49.2%259 W · 267 L | +21.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e67…0f23backed Aurora | 74c | 67.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Aurora | 68c | 65.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…b54abacked OG | 31c | 52.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1912…def8backed Aurora | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed OG | 29c | 46.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 565 | 48%271 W · 294 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68ff…17c9backed Aurora | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Aurora | 78c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 75cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Aurora | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13aa…88d6backed Aurora | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 187 | 69%129 W · 58 L | +20.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e64…a243backed Aurora | 75c | 26.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ba…fc0ebacked Aurora | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 201 | 49.8%100 W · 101 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Aurora | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…2561backed Aurora | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 316 | 59.8%189 W · 127 L | +18.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1311…d450backed Aurora | 70c | 18.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0900…2d68backed Aurora | 70c | 18.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4583…d36fbacked Aurora | 70c | 17.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs OG - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs OG (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group BAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs OG - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.