Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs OG - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x012fd165f927f060c0cbdc6584a563fd80487b19a76e05491bbedaa6294852b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, OG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $205,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $205,088 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 196 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked OG | 31c | 35,909$11,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,078.62 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3833…33d1backed OG | 36c | 9,630$3,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,509.24 | 426 | 50%213 W · 213 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Aurora | 74c | 9,028$6,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,341.25 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora | 71c | 7,667$5,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,225.13 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Aurora | 66c | 7,627$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,627.37 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…c556backed Aurora | 67c | 5,766$3,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,902.77 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Aurora | 62c | 5,690$3,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,182.03 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c1…dba0backed OG | 32c | 5,341$1,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,692.42 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…16acbacked Aurora | 65c | 5,000$3,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750 | 229 | 54.1%124 W · 105 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…0958backed Aurora | 66c | 4,087$2,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,409.43 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed OG | 28c | 3,063$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.64 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x491d…f42bbacked Aurora | 67c | 3,060$2,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.64 | 396 | 60.1%238 W · 158 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed OG | 34c | 2,791$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.77 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed OG | 32c | 2,677$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.64 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed OG | 31c | 2,614$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.48 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…8a8ebacked Aurora | 68c | 1,912$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.76 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Aurora | 65c | 1,770$1,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.61 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed OG | 33c | 1,750$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.49 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…c891backed Aurora | 77c | 1,573$1,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.32 | 335 | 49.9%167 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked OG | 34c | 1,550$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed OG | 35c | 1,540$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539 | 130 | 45.4%59 W · 71 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Aurora | 77c | 1,520$1,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.44 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Aurora | 66c | 1,506$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.27 | 203 | 67%136 W · 67 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…1d79backed Aurora | 67c | 1,498$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.11 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked OG | 25c | 1,493$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.37 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Aurora | 76c | 1,316$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.19 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2969…d6e5backed OG | 33c | 1,208$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -6.2wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7351…b857backed OG | 33c | 1,200$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…9659backed OG | 32c | 1,200$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 494 | 55.1%272 W · 222 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55db…8db6backed Aurora | 62c | 1,185$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.18 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab1…9b4fbacked Aurora | 65c | 1,180$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.74 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ae…f001backed OG | 34c | 1,120$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.8 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked Aurora | 67c | 1,096$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.93 | 154 | 61.7%95 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc8…67f7backed Aurora | 65c | 1,042$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.7 | 191 | 62.8%120 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Aurora | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x598b…f296backed Aurora | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked OG | 33c | 983.31$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.49 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Aurora | 76c | 928.77$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.91 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…e4d2backed Aurora | 71c | 884.61$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.81 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…db99backed Aurora | 65c | 884.28$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.5 | 363 | 43.3%157 W · 206 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed OG | 6c | 849.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcc…84c1backed OG | 33c | 757.57$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1259backed OG | 29c | 756.67$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.62 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5c84backed Aurora | 68c | 732.19$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.19 | 264 | 53%140 W · 124 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a11…eb9dbacked Aurora | 70c | 731.33$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.4 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked OG | 40c | 715.24$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…9a41backed Aurora | 66c | 700$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238 | 230 | 50.9%117 W · 113 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b8…50d8backed Aurora | 73c | 700$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3741…517ebacked Aurora | 62c | 700$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266 | 370 | 47%174 W · 196 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a0…12cabacked Aurora | 78c | 680.49$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.71 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Aurora | 68c | 664.29$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.29 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed8f…5aa7backed OG | 35c | 660.54$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.19 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…13f5backed Aurora | 62c | 642.55$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.17 | 450 | 46.7%210 W · 240 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b6…d7cebacked OG | 29c | 636.12$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.57 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6160…fdfcbacked OG | 33c | 609.7$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…e8fbbacked OG | 31c | 609.18$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.16 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…ed28backed OG | 36c | 600$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.79 | 605 | 52.6%318 W · 287 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…5cfebacked OG | 26c | 548.81$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.29 | 165 | 50.9%84 W · 81 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b12…5f8fbacked OG | 35c | 527.85$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.75 | 295 | 48.5%143 W · 152 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5c…9e02backed OG | 30c | 526$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.64 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked OG | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 171 | 33.9%58 W · 113 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x227f…405dbacked OG | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5a…acc3backed Aurora | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora | 69c | 495.98$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.83 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168b…0acfbacked Aurora | 73c | 458.57$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.4 | 183 | 62.8%115 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2757…55f0backed Aurora | 61c | 453$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.67 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed OG | 25c | 436.89$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.7 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Aurora | 69c | 433.64$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.64 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1854…be98backed OG | 34c | 410$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.4 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee0…f8f9backed Aurora | 65c | 410$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Aurora | 65c | 404.17$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.6 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…9d1fbacked OG | 32c | 400$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 167 | 25.7%43 W · 124 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked Aurora | 74c | 399.99$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x974a…98c3backed Aurora | 79c | 369$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.49 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Aurora | 73c | 350$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x76fc…48fabacked OG | 29c | 343.87$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.26 | 132 | 47.7%63 W · 69 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea8…077dbacked OG | 29c | 338.56$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.46 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Aurora | 79c | 336.33$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.64 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Aurora | 73c | 316.44$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.44 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…8b33backed OG | 26c | 316.3$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.47 | 114 | 50%57 W · 57 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed OG | 31c | 313.82$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.75 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3804…6d61backed Aurora | 65c | 307.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.62 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7310…2b8fbacked OG | 15c | 303.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabe5…d99abacked Aurora | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa7…003fbacked Aurora | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 450 | 52.4%236 W · 214 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…febfbacked Aurora | 67c | 296.7$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.7 | 216 | 50.9%110 W · 106 L | -25.3wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Aurora | 70c | 286.56$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.97 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Aurora | 70c | 284.56$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.47 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed OG | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd679…9ccfbacked Aurora | 80c | 276.59$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.32 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed OG | 27c | 275.07$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.27 | 436 | 47.5%207 W · 229 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…fb7bbacked Aurora | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d8…c3f8backed Aurora | 80c | 242$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x917b…e433backed OG | 27c | 237.86$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.58 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…d51cbacked Aurora | 70c | 214.29$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed OG | 26c | 213.36$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3be…f543backed Aurora | 63c | 208.46$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.13 | 254 | 57.9%147 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…f15cbacked Aurora | 68c | 204.25$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.56 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Aurora | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Aurora | 67c | 186.76$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.63 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs OG - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs OG (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group BAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs OG - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.