Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs OG (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafd5dd927aef299905ccf5a6bea243addf223fa7642f0fdd3be60a7ac8b0c9fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, OG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,765 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dcf…c556backed Aurora | 70c | 19,321$13,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,800.17 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18bb…e5cdbacked OG | 29c | 10,286$2,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,982.9 | 130 | 20%26 W · 104 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed OG | 32c | 8,810$2,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,817.15 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked OG | 30c | 2,322$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.92 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b6…00bcbacked OG | 30c | 2,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Aurora | 67c | 2,000$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…6774backed Aurora | 69c | 1,532$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.05 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -40%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed OG | 31c | 1,499$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.06 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed OG | 31c | 1,019$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.64 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed OG | 17c | 908.54$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.25 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…60f7backed Aurora | 70c | 902.26$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8c…f872backed Aurora | 69c | 867.72$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.72 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3eb…33d3backed Aurora | 69c | 858$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.98 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked OG | 31c | 559.98$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.06 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Aurora | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 236 | 50.4%119 W · 117 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae10…d0d9backed Aurora | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 173 | 53.2%92 W · 81 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33c6…6daabacked OG | 15c | 299.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…1992backed OG | 17c | 224.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 82 | 13.4%11 W · 71 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x829e…2c6dbacked OG | 18c | 222.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked Aurora | 71c | 207.49$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.57 | 354 | 61.3%217 W · 137 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…ff9bbacked Aurora | 70c | 201.07$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 321 | 48.3%155 W · 166 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked OG | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c77…6747backed OG | 12c | 190.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -9.2wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed OG | 16c | 172.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xea49…434fbacked Aurora | 73c | 165.42$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.67 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed OG | 31c | 151.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed OG | 32c | 150.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed OG | 16c | 144$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb79…91b5backed OG | 32c | 140$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x34f0…f0edbacked Aurora | 69c | 137.55$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…e74fbacked Aurora | 20c | 134.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.4 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed OG | 16c | 133.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…1f06backed Aurora | 69c | 120.07$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81fc…f616backed Aurora | 72c | 120.07$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked OG | 16c | 105.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc76e…caa5backed Aurora | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked OG | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -7.3wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb020…92f3backed Aurora | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc2…7ed7backed OG | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b8…61dcbacked Aurora | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 180 | 65.6%118 W · 62 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked OG | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 176 | 38.6%68 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6c…0c81backed Aurora | 69c | 98.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed OG | 31c | 89.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -4.6wins | -0.38per pick | 46cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed OG | 21c | 85.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x937b…1c0abacked OG | 30c | 66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -53%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Aurora | 71c | 63.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c5…db89backed Aurora | 68c | 57.22$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 127 | 59.8%76 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b30…5bf9backed Aurora | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69e4…9bacbacked OG | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…bbeebacked OG | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed OG | 31c | 48.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Aurora | 72c | 45.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x563c…0dbfbacked OG | 31c | 43.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7583…0469backed Aurora | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x37d6…d8d8backed Aurora | 73c | 41.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Aurora | 72c | 40.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb83d…8a3fbacked OG | 31c | 40.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30e2…9df8backed OG | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b7…bfe9backed Aurora | 70c | 32.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca6a…0c59backed Aurora | 69c | 32.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Aurora | 74c | 31.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Aurora | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55cd…8fc1backed Aurora | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a42…4930backed Aurora | 70c | 26.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee3…612dbacked Aurora | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…9436backed Aurora | 71c | 21.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8c…4136backed Aurora | 74c | 20.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3999…c2bbbacked Aurora | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x810f…643dbacked Aurora | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Aurora | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 302 | 50%151 W · 151 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked Aurora | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Aurora | 70c | 17.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc01d…2e79backed Aurora | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +99%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbc…0098backed Aurora | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs OG (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs OG - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs OG - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.