Europa Conference League · resolved market
Noah FA vs. AZ: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66e7ff16c54facde5ea1a4d9e77dcd37631c7412a08f98de9e6890fca9bd18d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 8,636$4,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,103.18 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Over | 50c | 4,448$2,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,222.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 36c | 2,700$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,737.78 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…3c1fbacked Over | 72c | 1,390$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b4…827fbacked Over | 76c | 1,130$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…e4efbacked Over | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ed…6fb8backed Over | 64c | 779.1$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.97 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d54…4d13backed Over | 22c | 758$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 57c | 719.5$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.59 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a0…bf76backed Over | 40c | 625$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 33c | 549.27$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.27 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5f…8a9bbacked Over | 45c | 439.65$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 35c | 337.74$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.86 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e8…2cecbacked Under | 6c | 300$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 23c | 208.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 55c | 180.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -6.8wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…1d41backed Over | 69c | 175.27$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0082…e801backed Over | 45c | 171.11$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 239 | 49.4%118 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Over | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe579…ba5ebacked Over | 36c | 155$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 83 | 69.9%58 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Over | 78c | 128.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1963…8122backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 80 | 62.5%50 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 39c | 77.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 146 | 41.1%60 W · 86 L | -14.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 54c | 65.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Over | 36c | 65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…29c5backed Over | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…54d2backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e31…a753backed Over | 40c | 44.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdea…31e9backed Over | 54c | 44.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…2a97backed Under | 53c | 39.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc460…0aa4backed Over | 45c | 37.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…5ea8backed Over | 56c | 35.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4238…3233backed Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -43%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…19cabacked Over | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 52c | 28.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 75c | 19.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Noah FA vs. AZ: O/U 1.5this page
- Noah FA vs. AZ: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Noah FA vs. AZ: O/U 2.5Under won
- Noah FA vs. AZ: O/U 3.5Under won
- Noah FA vs. AZ: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.