Europa Conference League · resolved market
Noah FA vs. AZ: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5a6f6f8a14d7bccfd317ffce1c4c76be9dd243777960432ad32fbac84fb7234
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc311…44fcbacked Over | 50c | 19,864$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 13,051$6,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,484.78 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 63c | 5,435$3,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,005.21 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 4,906$2,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,480.67 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 37c | 1,112$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.31 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…3c1fbacked Over | 29c | 1,043$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 56c | 1,031$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.98 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a0…bf76backed Over | 15c | 835$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.25 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4980…a14cbacked Under | 46c | 756.52$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 60c | 557.48$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 50c | 315.09$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.01 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf60d…761abacked Over | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a1…4dbdbacked Under | 52c | 299.5$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 60c | 250.9$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e48…6fd3backed Over | 49c | 206$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 56c | 177.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked Under | 42c | 150$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 19c | 149.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Under | 41c | 139.97$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 42c | 125$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 55c | 118$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 239 | 49.4%118 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 46c | 109.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.38 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 45c | 103$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.83 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed Over | 44c | 99.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…8147backed Over | 49c | 78.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…a821backed Over | 53c | 66.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 51c | 56.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…c55fbacked Over | 59c | 56.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4238…3233backed Over | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -43%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 48c | 50.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e31…a753backed Over | 32c | 47.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 41c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbeea…0c83backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Noah FA vs. AZ: O/U 2.5this page
- Noah FA vs. AZ: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Noah FA vs. AZ: O/U 1.5Under won
- Noah FA vs. AZ: O/U 3.5Under won
- Noah FA vs. AZ: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.