Fifa International · resolved market
Ecuador leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6763cadf0e3d147cc0857d4ec7f04993d8de83dc0cafc3fae43b2fabac059b36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $147,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $162,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $147,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 16c | 24,492$3,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,859.38 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 18c | 18,913$3,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,404.42 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 18c | 5,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 549 | 17.9%98 W · 451 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Yes | 17c | 2,483$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.07 | 716 | 38.4%275 W · 441 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 17c | 2,413$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.73 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked Yes | 17c | 2,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 706 | 48.2%340 W · 366 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Yes | 18c | 1,946$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.28 | 1,985 | 32.5%645 W · 1,340 L | -47.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec0…fccdbacked Yes | 18c | 1,897$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,385$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.36 | 2,271 | 39.5%896 W · 1,375 L | +10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed Yes | 17c | 999.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 617 | 52%321 W · 296 L | -13.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x484a…316abacked Yes | 19c | 923.6$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.01 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddbb…32afbacked Yes | 18c | 833.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 127 | 26.8%34 W · 93 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Yes | 17c | 700$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 977 | 42%410 W · 567 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…d25cbacked Yes | 19c | 527.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb124…7380backed Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 345 | 37.1%128 W · 217 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 17c | 501.14$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.19 | 470 | 32.8%154 W · 316 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…ac23backed Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 957 | 39.5%378 W · 579 L | -18.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 16c | 413$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.29 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…d790backed Yes | 19c | 363.56$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.08 | 248 | 43.1%107 W · 141 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef8b…0775backed Yes | 19c | 357.89$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x323b…df9abacked Yes | 18c | 333.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 17c | 288.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 1,045 | 29.3%306 W · 739 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6faf…de48backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 202 | 24.8%50 W · 152 L | -15.8wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0852…655cbacked Yes | 13c | 255$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 536 | 29.9%160 W · 376 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 9c | 246.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 333 | 37.8%126 W · 207 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 14c | 238$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 351 | 36.8%129 W · 222 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Yes | 18c | 199.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 1,005 | 44.3%445 W · 560 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Yes | 9c | 184.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 420 | 43.1%181 W · 239 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 13c | 151$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 1,941 | 35.5%690 W · 1,251 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…b36cbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…3efebacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b2…8e7dbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f17…c1dbbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 288 | 8%23 W · 265 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc2…077bbacked Yes | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 178 | 45.5%81 W · 97 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Yes | 17c | 84.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1,459 | 53.9%787 W · 672 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…c682backed Yes | 18c | 77.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08b3…48a9backed Yes | 15c | 75.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb135…b9febacked Yes | 19c | 73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 242 | 33.5%81 W · 161 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9287…0098backed Yes | 18c | 64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +13.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefb6…223cbacked Yes | 18c | 60.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,421 | 47.8%679 W · 742 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ecuador leading at halftime?this page
- Mexico leading at halftime?Yes won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.