Tennis · resolved market
Kigali 2: Alexander Donski vs Garrett Johns
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x679d2c50d9a5cc7b4bf1c4d6eb2ca9113b3b073dcc6cc8929b941ee4fd07b1ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alexander Donskiof Alexander Donski, Garrett Johns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,106 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Alexander Donski | 74c | 2,964$2,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.35 | 809 | 38.8%314 W · 495 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Garrett Johns | 45c | 2,130$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.24 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4173…d3edbacked Garrett Johns | 50c | 1,384$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692 | 556 | 46.4%258 W · 298 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Alexander Donski | 66c | 1,221$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.22 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Alexander Donski | 80c | 1,111$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.79 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Garrett Johns | 29c | 1,044$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.04 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e64…89c3backed Alexander Donski | 56c | 897.34$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.34 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda22…6d2abacked Alexander Donski | 51c | 773.73$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.73 | 353 | 44.8%158 W · 195 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f95…b08bbacked Alexander Donski | 45c | 656.24$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.36 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Garrett Johns | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 469 | 32%150 W · 319 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Garrett Johns | 40c | 414.08$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.93 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa094…8ac2backed Alexander Donski | 76c | 299.2$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Garrett Johns | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Garrett Johns | 49c | 201.5$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.33 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Garrett Johns | 49c | 199.45$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.33 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9334…df9ebacked Garrett Johns | 9c | 199.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed Garrett Johns | 54c | 198.12$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.58 | 308 | 53.6%165 W · 143 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Alexander Donski | 52c | 191.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.61 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Garrett Johns | 55c | 182.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Garrett Johns | 11c | 181$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Garrett Johns | 45c | 165.33$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 381 | 47%179 W · 202 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Garrett Johns | 32c | 163.54$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Garrett Johns | 16c | 158.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 1,923 | 55.4%1,066 W · 857 L | -44.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd294…c4dabacked Garrett Johns | 26c | 155.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Garrett Johns | 45c | 154.9$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.02 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Garrett Johns | 47c | 147.6$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.37 | 412 | 72.8%300 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…d0b9backed Garrett Johns | 19c | 146.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 707 | 29.1%206 W · 501 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Garrett Johns | 49c | 132.65$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1,615 | 50.6%817 W · 798 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Garrett Johns | 55c | 130$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 328 | 42.7%140 W · 188 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25f1…f53cbacked Garrett Johns | 47c | 127.62$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…61fdbacked Garrett Johns | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Alexander Donski | 73c | 120.81$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 246 | 34.1%84 W · 162 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Garrett Johns | 26c | 113.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Garrett Johns | 24c | 112$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Alexander Donski | 54c | 108$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03c…3138backed Garrett Johns | 47c | 105.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -7.7wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -32%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Garrett Johns | 21c | 104.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 131 | 13.7%18 W · 113 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Garrett Johns | 26c | 76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 373 | 42.6%159 W · 214 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Garrett Johns | 19c | 73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Alexander Donski | 54c | 72.22$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 678 | 36%244 W · 434 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Alexander Donski | 52c | 69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Garrett Johns | 31c | 68.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Garrett Johns | 47c | 64.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Alexander Donski | 53c | 63.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…fa43backed Garrett Johns | 32c | 62.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 108 | 32.4%35 W · 73 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Alexander Donski | 73c | 60.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Alexander Donski | 46c | 59.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…cb95backed Alexander Donski | 80c | 58.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 242 | 44.6%108 W · 134 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe761…4f54backed Garrett Johns | 33c | 57.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 263 | 49.4%130 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Garrett Johns | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,831 | 53%971 W · 860 L | -45.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x449e…4f8ebacked Alexander Donski | 54c | 49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd77…ef21backed Alexander Donski | 73c | 48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 652 | 64.1%418 W · 234 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd88a…1eefbacked Garrett Johns | 45c | 44.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 544 | 34.2%186 W · 358 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Garrett Johns | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 692 | 53.3%369 W · 323 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…26f2backed Alexander Donski | 62c | 40.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Garrett Johns | 25c | 40.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 249 | 31.3%78 W · 171 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Alexander Donski | 47c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 968 | 44.4%430 W · 538 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Alexander Donski | 75c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 970 | 46.6%452 W · 518 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf7…0505backed Garrett Johns | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Alexander Donski | 66c | 25.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 619 | 53.3%330 W · 289 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf58…711fbacked Garrett Johns | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1031…e5bdbacked Garrett Johns | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…1420backed Alexander Donski | 53c | 21.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 222 | 58.1%129 W · 93 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…f943backed Alexander Donski | 70c | 15.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Alexander Donski | 79c | 13.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kigali 2: Alexander Donski vs Garrett Johnsthis page
- Donski vs. Johns: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Donski vs JohnsDonski won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.