Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67cfd54ef3c6ca91833fe51eaf3e9dce63eb004e693400d5ee26a2c28dc1b4af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 3c | 3,134$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.37 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 2c | 601$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 5c | 260.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 6c | 246.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 7c | 231.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 28c | 191.43$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.21 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 27c | 169.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…806ebacked Yes | 30c | 164.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 7c | 159.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 77c | 129.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.43 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 126.37$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 125.79$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 12c | 112.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 32c | 111.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 10c | 110.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 26c | 108.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 68c | 102.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 31c | 99.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 69c | 84.74$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 30c | 79.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 32c | 60.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6674…7efbbacked Yes | 24c | 59.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 27c | 53.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 73c | 41.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x780d…3e2dbacked No | 67c | 39.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b0…7c9abacked No | 75c | 37.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fad…9542backed Yes | 35c | 34.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 34c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 34c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 70c | 32.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 32.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 68c | 31.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6030…8fe0backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8512…f69fbacked No | 67c | 26.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 24.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 21.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 77c | 18.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.